hankyoreh

By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

It has come to light that there was evidence arose that last July North Korea was preparing its long-range missile launch and nuclear tests, and that the US government had been informed of the preparations.

Joel Wit, an expert on North Korean issues, said during an interview with the Hankyoreh on Feb. 16, “In July, it was very clear from talking to the North Korean foreign ministers that they were moving toward further development of their nuclear deterrent and missile forces. It was already clear at the time that we were headed for a difficult time after the elections in the US and South Korea”. Wit and another US civilian expert met at a ‘Track-II’ meeting in Singapore with Choi Sun-hee, deputy director of North Korea’s foreign ministry and Han Sung-ryul, North Korean deputy ambassador to the UN.

Wit said, “The North Korean officials firmly stated they were dropping the principle of ‘action for action’ contained in the 2005 Joint Declaration on Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. They wanted the US to take the first step to show that they were sincere”. He also said, “It was clear they were escalating their efforts to develop their nuclear deterrent”. In a situation where the US is demanding the North Koreans give up their nuclear weapons, asking the US to first open diplomatic relations is a sign that North Korea is willing to risk escalating the situation.

Wit also said, “The North Korean officials didn’t specify what steps would be taken, but what they could do was pretty much common knowledge. Things North Korea could do to escalate this situation include a missile launch and a nuclear weapons test, mounting a nuclear warhead on top of a missile, producing highly enriched uranium (HEU), ditching denuclearization, and saying they no longer abide by the Sept. 19 agreement”.

He added, “Privately, at the track-II meeting the North Koreans basically said that they can mount nuclear warheads on missiles but have been debating among whether or not to say so publicly”.

It has been found that the North Korean officials requested their warning message be known to the press. Wit said, “Normally, these meetings are confidential. And the request from the North Koreans was a first. I refused to talk to the press because my job is not to be North Korea’s press agent. That’s not my role. However, the messages were relayed very clearly to the US government, the White House, the State Department, and the intelligence community. The government officials knew at least from us what North Korea was saying”. Although there have been leaks on news about North Korea abrogating the Sept. 19 agreement on Foreign Policy’s website, it is a first for a conference attendee to speak directly with the press.

It can be interpreted from North Korea’s behavior that they are considering high-intensity actions such as a long-range missile launch, a nuclear test and demanding negotiations with the US. Requesting that the information be provided to the press means that North Korea is trying to pressure the US using publicity. Since then, there has been no information on the extent of US-North Korean contact, but it is apparent that the US did not deal with the situation due to the presidential elections. Wit said, “I wrote a few things to sort of warn that North Korea is going be the first foreign policy crisis the second Obama administration will face but no one paid attention”.

When it comes to US’s North Korea policy, Wit said, “For the past four years, we’ve [the Obama administration] been conducting a policy in cooperation with president Lee that is really a total failure”. He characterized this administration’s four-year approach as made up of ‘weak sanctions’ and ‘weak diplomacy’. Wit also pointed out, “We thought we could somehow alter North Korea’s behavior by not talking to them. Trying to teach them lessons by when they do bad things we react with sanctions and other measures. Not talking to them will teach them to behave better. In fact however, it only empowered the North Koreans and their behavior got worse and worse”. He added, “The Obama administration had worked closely with President Lee, whose approach toward North Korea, I believe, was driven by conservative ideology and not by national interests”.

With regard to the recent nuclear test by North Korea, Wit said, “I tend to believe North Korea can build nuclear weapons that can be loaded on the Nodong missile and they are working to do more. Beyond that I can’t give fine-tuned analysis. We have to start to think about where this is heading in the future. There have been some estimates that by 2016 North Korea could have 50 nuclear weapons. North Korea is becoming a small nuclear power like Pakistan, India, and Israel. That’s where they are heading”.

Wit believes the way to deal with the current situation is through a combination of strong sanctions and strong diplomacy. He says sanctions alone cannot handle the situation and that above all, direct talks with North Korea are needed. He said, “We need to be thinking about a strong diplomacy initiative aimed at North Korea. By that I mean not just offering food aid or fuel oil. That’s not going to work anymore. We have to address the needs for core security for both sides. Their concern I guess is a peace treaty, while our concern is that we don’t like the weapons of mass destruction program. So strong diplomacy has to take both sides into account seriously. That is what North Korea expects.”

Wit served during the first North Korean nuclear crisis from 1993 to 1995 as a Senior Advisor to Ambassador Robert Galluci. After that he took the lead in forming the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization and was responsible for policies against North Korea. Prior to his efforts of the Agreed Framework, he was assigned to the State Department’s Office of Strategic Nuclear Policy. Wit currently manages the website 38 North, a program of the US-Korea Institute at the John Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

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