hankyoreh

By Park Min-hee, Beijing correspondent and Seong Yeon-cheol, staff reporter

Amid the historically unprecedented outbreak of anti-North Korea protests by Chinese citizens following the North Korean third nuclear test, both state-run media and policy experts are releasing an uncensored flood of criticism against Beijing’s North Korean policy.

The Lianghui simultaneous meetings of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held on Mar. 3 will represent the official beginning of the Xi Jinping government, and the new diplomatic team will be determined here. New president Xi Jinping has indicated that, following the Lianghui, he will enter discussions about new policies for the Korean peninsula, including North Korean policy, as leader of the Foreign Affairs Leading Small Group (FALSG). Every major research institute inside China that researches the North Korean issue has been given orders to prepare reports re-evaluating China's policies toward the North, sources say.

In its Feb. 28 edition, UK paper the Financial Times printed an article written by Deng Yuwen, assistant editor of China's Study Times. The article was titled, "China Should Abandon North Korea.”

"North Korea's third nuclear test is a good moment for China to re-evaluate its longstanding alliance with the Kim dynasty," writes Deng. "Basing China's strategic security on North Korea's value as a geopolitical ally is outdated."

The Central Party School, which publishes the Study Times, is an educational institute for high-ranking officials in the Communist Party of China, and Xi Jinping was the head of the school until 2012. It is unlikely that this article, which openly calls for a complete re-evaluation of China’s policy toward North Korea, is merely the personal opinion of the writer.

"Once North Korea has nuclear weapons, it cannot be ruled out that the capricious Kim regime will engage in nuclear blackmail against China," Deng said, claiming that, when Bill Clinton visited Pyongyang in 2009, Kim Jong-il "suggested that if Washington held out a helping hand, North Korea could become its strongest fortress against China."

"The best way of giving up on Pyongyang," he argued, "is to take the initiative to facilitate North Korea's unification with South Korea. Bringing about the peninsula's unification would help undermine the strategic alliance between Washington, Tokyo and Seoul [and] ease the geopolitical pressure on China."

Recently, Chinese state-run media have hosted an animated debate between experts about the so-called US-North Korea deal theory. This is the argument that, because of uncertain relations between the US and China, the US would ultimately acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear power, and North Korea would participate in US efforts to counter China.

Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Central Party School, was interviewed for a Feb. 25 article in the Global Times, the English edition of the state-run People's Daily. "North Korea has never cared about China's attitude," the article said. "When North Korea makes big decisions, it would rather inform Washington than Beijing...The North has never viewed China as an ally."

The article argued that, before the satellite launch in Apr. 2012, North Korea had already informed the US of its intentions in Dec. 2011. The Chinese foreign ministry was embarrassed when it found out much later.

On Feb. 28, the People's Daily ran a rebuttal of this argument by Zhao Shigong, a researcher with the Chinese Asia-Pacific Academic Society. "If the US were to acknowledge North Korea as a nuclear power, it would constitute an abandonment of the denuclearization program on the Korean peninsula. Since this would make it impossible to stop international nuclear proliferation and would force South Korea to end its alliance with the US and start down the road to nuclear armament, no deal can take place between North Korea and the US.”

A Feb. 28 article in the Global Times that ran under the title of "Are Chinese and North Korea Relations as Amicable as Before?" addresses how North Korea is perceived by different generations of Chinese. The article reflects China's current dilemma: it is no longer easy to either criticize or cover for North Korea.

In an interview, Zhang Hao, a businessman who has been trading with North Korea for 15 years, said that North Koreans "have learned to be shrewd when dealing with Chinese businessmen. They know how to bargain and even ask for bribes. Meanwhile, North Korea's political uncertainties make it risky to do business there."

In contrast, Zhang Shaotang, who served in the Chinese People's Volunteer Army during the Korean War, said, "I know the negative sides of the country, such as famine and the hereditary regime...but the mutual dependence of China and North Korea is like that between teeth and lips. I don't think such a relationship should change today."

"If, say, South Korea, which is led by the nose by the US, accomplishes unification of the Korean Peninsula, will that do any good to China? North Korea should remain a strategic buffer zone for us," Zhang argued.

It is unusual for the Chinese government not to clamp down the diverse viewpoints being expressed about the country's North Korean policy in a manner reminiscent of the "Hundred Flowers" period of liberalization. Analysts are suggesting that the government is indicating to the international community, which is calling on China to put pressure on North Korea, that it has little leverage over Pyongyang, while also making an allowance for anti-North Korean sentiment inside China.

However, the move also appears to have significance as a warning to North Korea. Indeed, there are signs of change, with traditional sources on relations between North Korea and China reporting that Chinese authorities are starting to tighten customs control of goods moving between China and North Korea and to strengthen management of North Korean bank accounts inside China.

"China will keep its existing policy goal of not recognizing North Korea as a nuclear power and maintaining stability on the Korean peninsula while also seeking new ways to more effectively manage its relationship with North Korea." said Mun Il-hyun, a professor at the China University of Political Science and Law. "After the Xi Jinping government is launched, it will undertake a comprehensive re-evaluation of how much they are willing to put up with from North Korea, and, in the long term, how they will address the question of reunification of the Korean peninsula."

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]