hankyoreh

By Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter

With North Korea having declared that it will nullify the Korean War armistice agreement when the Key Resolve joint military exercises between the US and South Korea begin on Mar. 11, attention is focusing both in Korea and abroad on what Pyongyang’s next move will be. While the chances of a major military provocation against the South are not considered to be very high, analysts believe it is more likely that we will see provocative behavior taking the form of pressure on the US to come to the negotiating table.

On the morning of Mar. 11, North Korea announced that it had gone through with its threat to cut off the Red Cross communication hotline with South Korea.

In all, there are three things that North Korea has said it will do starting on Mar. 11. First, it said it would nullify the ceasefire agreement, but this does not look easy. This is because Clause 61 of the agreement states that any amendments to the ceasefire must be agreed to by the commanders of both sides in the hostilities. In addition, Clause 62 provides that the ceasefire shall remain in effect until it is replaced by a peace agreement between both sides.

As a consequence, if North Korea is to nullify the agreement, it requires the agreement both of China, its ally in the war, and the UN (led by the US), its opponent in the war. In addition, the ceasefire agreement cannot be nullified until a peace treaty is signed with the US and takes effect. To summarize the positions expressed by James Sherman, commander of UN military forces, and the Chinese foreign ministry, right now, the chances that the ceasefire will be nullified and a peace treaty signed are virtually nil.

In addition, Pyongyang’s unilateral declaration to stop all activity and cut off the military hotline at Panmunjeom between the DPRK and US located there will have just as little effect. Back in Mar. 1991, North Korea announced that it would not participate in the military armistice commission in retaliation for a Korean general being appointed as the chief delegate for the UN forces. However, starting in 1998, general-level talks between the UN and DPRK forces, which replaced the armistice commission, were held 16 times.

Furthermore, while the UN-North Korea military hotline at Panmunjeom was cut on Mar. 5 and the hotline between the North and South Korean government was severed on Mar. 8, the six phone lines in the military situation room in the area jointly managed by North and South, which are used for administration of the Kaeseong Industrial Complex, remain in operation. It appears that North Korea is fully aware that completely cutting off all phone communication would lead to its isolation.

On Mar. 11, South Korea’s Ministry of Unification confirmed that the Red Cross phone and fax lines between North and South Korea was no longer functioning. A morning attempt to contact North Korea using the line received no response.

In the view of the Ministry of Defense, it is very likely that, after Mar. 11, rather than engaging in any real military provocation, North Korea will instead make one threat after another that hint at such action. This is because the North’s declaration that it will nullify the armistice agreement is more of a bluff made just before the imposition of additional sanctions by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the beginning of the joint US-ROK military exercises. On several previous occasions in the past, North Korea has threatened to dissolve the ceasefire agreement and the inter-Korean non-aggression pact in connection with US-ROK military exercises or economic sanctions by the UN or by the South.

The fact that there are few cases when a military provocation by North Korea has taken place after a publicly made threat is yet more grounds for thinking that the chances of military provocation are low. Most high-level military provocations that have occurred before, such as the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island and the naval skirmish in the West (Yellow) Sea, took place when South Korea was not expecting them.

“We are viewing this declaration as a gesture for dialogue. North Korea is trying to improve its relations with the US as it gains recognition as a nuclear-armed state with long-range missiles,” explained a Ministry of Defense official. “In the past, India and Pakistan normalized relations with the US after acquiring nuclear weapons.”

Of course, it is not impossible that North Korea will make some kind of low-intensity military provocation. For example, it could launch one of its short-range 120km KN-02 missiles into its territorial waters. It was recently reported that North Korea has set up a no-sailing zone in its territorial waters in the West and East Seas, and the Ministry of Defense is viewing this as one reason to suspect the possibility of a missile launch.

There are even analysts who believe that North Korea hopes that, by launching a short-range missile, it could put pressure on South Korea, the US, and Japan without pushing them too far. Others suggest that North Korea could hold a large-scale military exercise in the East and West Seas as a counter to the joint US-ROK military exercises.

Along with this, we cannot entirely dismiss the possibility of a high-level military provocation along the lines of the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island or the naval clash in the West Sea. “North Korea’s military provocations have always been unexpected, taking place at a time, in a location, and through a means we had not thought of,” explained the Ministry of Defense official.

Indeed, the very fact that the South Korean government believes that a military provocation is unlikely in light of past incidents could be viewed by North Korea as the perfect time for a military provocation. However, at the present, North Korea stands to lose more than it would gain from this option.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]