hankyoreh

2012

By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer and Kim Kyu-won, staff reporter

On Mar. 26, North Korea released a statement from the Supreme Command of the People’s Army announcing that it was bringing its strategic missile units, its long-range artillery units, and all of its artillery forces in the field to combat readiness posture No. 1.

The statement was released through the state-run Korea Central News Agency (KCNA). “From this moment, we are bringing all of our field artillery units to combat readiness posture No. 1,” the statement said. “This includes our long-range artillery and our strategic rocket units, which can strike all enemy targets in the continental US, Hawaii, Guam, and other American bases in the Pacific, and all targets in South Korea and in the adjoining areas.” Combat readiness posture No. 1 means that the DPRK army has reached the highest level of combat readiness.

“Strategic rocket unit” refers to units equipped with KN-02, Scud, Nodong, Taepodong, Musudan, and KN-08 missiles, which have a range of 100-5500km. “Long-range artillery” is a reference to units that have 170mm self-propelled howitzers that can fire at targets 50-60km away and 240mm multiple rocket launchers.

It is believed that North Korea chose this inflammatory rhetoric as a way to respond to the international pressure it currently faces from all directions. Since Pyongyang’s nuclear test in February, the UN has imposed additional sanctions, the US and South Korea have held combined war games, and criticism has been leveled against North Korea for the sinking of the Cheonan.

The statement also said, “We will take physical action to show the current South Korean authorities, who are collaborating in the hostile policies aimed at North Korea, the intensity of our military resolve.” The “South Korean authorities” mentioned here are understood to be a reference to Kim Kwan-jin, minister of defense; Jung Seung-jo, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; and other members of the military brass who publicly called for firm retaliation after North Korea’s bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island.

“There have been no unusual movements in the North Korean military since the statement. If North Korea makes a provocation, we will retaliate forcefully and resolutely,” a press officer at the South Korean Ministry of Defense said.

The statement by the DPRK military supreme command indicates the possibility that the North will once again take some sort of strong military action. However, it does not appear likely that it will engage in any actual military provocation. It appears that North Korea has chosen to counter the additional sanctions imposed by the international community after the nuclear test in Feb. 2013 and the US-ROK large-scale joint military exercises with highly bellicose language.

In general, the statement discloses that North Korea will be taking two measures. The first is adopting the highest level of combat readiness to enable its missile and long-range artillery units to strike American military bases on the US mainland, in the Pacific, South Korea, and in neighboring areas. While the claim to mobilize missile and long-range artillery units is threatening, nothing was said about taking any immediate military action. It only means that the strategic rocket and long-range artillery units are moving into combat readiness posture No. 1, which enables them to launch an attack at any time against US military bases in the US and South Korea.

The expression “combat readiness posture No. 1” is very unfamiliar and ambiguous. “We understand that this means the North Korean military is entering the highest level of readiness for battle,” said one official at the Ministry of Unification.

“Considering the fact that combat order No. 1 was invoked in North Korea at the time of the Korean War, it seems possible that "No. 1" does not connote a level of crisis, but rather the first action to be taken, coming before No. 2 and No. 3,” said a general in the reserve forces who spoke under condition of anonymity. “Since the official combat readiness stage in North Korea is expressed as "storm", it is difficult to deduce the meaning of this expression or what subsequent actions might be.”

The second measure that the statement revealed was that the North “will take physical action to show the current South Korean authorities…the intensity of our military resolve.” The South Korean authorities that are mentioned here are understood to be the leaders of the ROK military who have said that they will retaliate forcefully against any North Korean provocation by hitting the source of the attack, the units supporting the attack, and those who ordered the attack. This is a response to the joint military exercises held recently by the US and ROK forces and the continued criticism of North Korea regarding the sinking of the Cheonan.

The message of this statement appears to be addressing the fact that the ROK military leadership has made remarks aimed at North Korea’s top leaders. When North Korea launched a long-range missile in 2012 and tested a nuclear device in 2013, the ROK military unveiled leadership a new model of missile, saying, “We can even hit the windows in the office of North Korea’s high command.”

Recently, one newspaper also ran a story in which a military official was quoted as saying, “If North Korea makes a limited provocation, we can attack the statues of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il.”

Additional events that the North Korean high command cited as reasons for the statement being released are a US-ROK plan to eliminate North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, drills by US B-52 strategic bombers related to bombing North Korea, and the UN Security Council’s resolution to impose additional sanctions on North Korea. In a word, the point of the statement appears to be that North Korea is facing pressure from all corners of the international community, but it has adopted a combat readiness posture to counter such pressure.

The official position announced by the South Korean Ministry of Defense on the same day was, “There have been no unusual movements in the North Korean military.” It appears that the Ministry is not attributing any major significance to the statement.

In his regular press briefing, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hong Lei addressed the North Korean statement. “At present, the state of affairs on the Korean peninsula remains delicate and complicated,” Lei said. “It is our hope that the countries concerned will exercise restraint to relax this tense situation.”

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]