hankyoreh

Apr. 3. (by Lee Jeong-ah

By Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer

On Apr. 3, the North Korean General Bureau for the Special Zone Development (GBSZD) informed the Kaesong Industrial District Management Committee that South Korean workers would not be allowed to enter the Kaesong complex, though South Koreans already there would be allowed to return home.

On Mar. 30, Pyongyang had issued a warning about a possible closing of Kaesong in a statement released by a spokesperson for the GBSZD. “If the South Korean puppet regime spreads lies about the Kaesong Complex, whose fate is in doubt, and attempts to injure our dignity in the slightest way, we will shut down the Complex without hesitation,” the statement read.

North Korea also restricted entrance to Kaesong on three occasions in Mar. 2009, because of the Key Resolve US-ROK combined military exercises. In addition to this, it banned traffic to the complex or put restrictions on who was allowed to enter or leave in Dec. 2008, May 2010, and Nov. 2010.

It seems unlikely that the North’s partial closure of the Kaesong Complex is aimed at Kaesong itself. Rather, it seems to be intended to show that the North’s threats are not just empty bluster, but could lead to action. In other words, the GBSZD statement from Mar. 30 could lead not to more words, but to an immediate shutdown. The move also reaffirms the North’s stated position that it will approach inter-Korean relations according to a wartime protocol.

Since Feb. 12, when the North conducted its third nuclear test, it has made so many threats about military provocation that it would be hard to list them all. The majority of them have been about nullifying existing agreements such as the armistice agreement, taking unilateral measures to severe relations, and strengthening its own nuclear capabilities through measures such as reactivating the Yongbyon nuclear reactor.

The US and South Korea have at times seemed nonchalant about such remarks, dismissing them as bluster. Jay Carney, press secretary for the White House even made a sarcastic remark about the North on Apr. 1. “Despite the harsh rhetoric we’re hearing from Pyongyang, we are not seeing changes to the North Korean military posture, such as large-scale mobilizations and positioning of forces,” Carney said. “What that disconnect between the rhetoric and action means, I‘ll leave to the analysts to judge.”

Nevertheless, it is obvious that the situation with North Korea is no laughing matter, as acknowledged by Chuck Hegel, US Secretary of Defense, who said that the North’s belligerent behavior must be taken seriously.

Mitchell Reiss, a former Direction of Policy Planning in the US Department of State, expressed his view that, since the North‘s options are extremely limited, we should be viewing this as a more serious situation.

Viewed in these terms, not only do the North’s latest measures at the Kaesong Complex pose a genuine threat to the physical safety of the South Korean personnel inside the Complex, but they also are effective as a threat in the sense that the responses that the South can make are limited. The threat cannot be ignored, nor is it easy to counter it with B-52 or B-2 bombers.

In fact, this fits into the strategy that North Korea has adopted since it announced a full-scale confrontation with the US, demanding that a choice be made between peace talks and war. Except for the nuclear test and remarks about turning New York into a sea of fire, which imply the ability to launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland, the North’s strategy has been for the most part to increase the sense of crisis by taking the entire country of South Korea hostage. Kaesong is essentially this strategy in miniature.

Nevertheless, the North’s measure is bound to backfire in a major way. The first reason is that it could discourage Americans and South Koreans who are still trying to find a way out through diplomacy and dialogue despite the North‘s dire threats of military provocation.

Only a day earlier, Ryoo Kihl-jae, South Korean Minister of Unification, rejected proposals to shut down the Kaesong Complex as a way to cut off money to the North and to prevent the Kaesong workers from being taken hostage. The Kaesong Complex, Ryoo said, is like the water used to prime the pump in inter-Korean relations.

At a meeting held on the same day between the South Korean foreign minister and John Kerry, US Secretary of State, Kerry reiterated the fact that the US is prepared to talk, noting however that North Korea keeps making the wrong choices.

Another reason that the move is detrimental to the North is that it contradicts its own two-track plan to build the economy and the nuclear arsenal at the same time. On Mar. 31, at a plenary session, the Workers’ Party Central Committee itself declared this to be “the wisest approach, and the people’s approach.”

Drawing upon the plan, North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly defined the cabinet’s work orientation for 2013 to be pushing forward with the active encouragement of diversification of trade and joint ventures and the establishment of economic development zones. Such projects are incompatible with a decision to abruptly shut down the Kaesong Complex, which has been in operation for about 10 years, because of reports in the South Korean press.

As a result of North Korea’s ban on entrance into the Complex, 484 South Korean workers who had tried to go to work in the morning were forced to turn back.

“A lot of people here experienced this at the time of the sinking of the Cheonan, so it’s not that surprising,” said No Yun-gyeong, 44, who returned from Kaesong. “I really need to get into Kaesong tomorrow. I’m worried that this might cause problems with our inventory.”

“There is a Korean proverb that says one gentle word can amount to repayment of a large debt, but if you look at remarks that certain South Korean papers and officials have made about Kaesong recently, they might as well be throwing fuel on the fire,” said Kim Han-sin, the CEO of Hansin. “The people being damaged by these remarks are South Korean companies and individuals.” Kim has worked in the area of inter-Korean economic cooperation since the 1990s.

On Mar. 31, after the North Korean statement was released, the Corporate Association of Kaesong Industrial Complex, which represents businesses operating at the complex, urged both sides to “refrain from unproductive political debate so that we can develop the Kaesong Industrial Complex and inter-Korean relations.”

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]