hankyoreh

the entrance to the Kaesong Industrial Complex is empty of traffic. North Korea announced an entry ban for South Koreans on Apr. 3 and yesterday announced that it would withdraw all North Korean workers. (by Park Jong-shik

By Park Byong-su, staff reporter and Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer

North Korea sent an ultimatum on Apr. 8 to South Korean businesses in the Kaesong Industrial Complex telling them they have until Apr. 10 to withdraw, leaving only a minimum number of workers behind.

A statement was also issued in the name of Workers’ Party of (North) Korea Central Committee Secretary in charge of South Korean affairs Kim Yang-gon saying that North Korea was pulling all of its workers out of the complex and considering closing it down for good.

With Apr. 10 also the deadline for diplomatic missions in Pyongyang to submit plans for their own evacuation in the event of an emergency, some are speculating that another provocation from North Korea may be imminent.

The head of one Kaesong tenant company told a Hankyoreh reporter that North Korea had previously sent notice on Apr. 4 that businesses were to pull out all but the minimum necessary staff members by Apr. 10.

“Then on Monday that they said we had until Wednesday to leave the complex,” the source said. “We have no choice now. We have to get out.”

Another source at a different tenant company reported receiving notice from North Korea’s management committee for the complex ordering companies to withdraw all but one of their employees.

“We received word from the management committee that we were to cut our South Korean staff presence by half,” said an executive at a third tenant company. “It wasn’t one person across the board. If you had two people, you cut it down to one, if you had ten people you cut it to five, and so on.”

The move was seen as an order from the North for South Korean tenant companies to leave only enough personnel to keep Kaesong going as a “communication base.” In addition to pulling out its workers, the countries effectively demanded that companies leave as well. Now there is a good chance the entire complex will grind to a halt as of Apr. 10.

Military frictions have steadily intensified over the past few years, but the complex has kept going. Even when North Korea blocked access to it in 2009, the complex was immediately reopened after the end of the US-South Korea Key Resolve combined military exercises. The complex is seen by many as a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation, and its closure would be a political burden to both North and South.

It is unclear whether a total shutdown is the next step. North Korea is allowing a continued staff presence, indicating that it does not intend to go as far as to close the entire complex. Indeed, the latest move is likely part of a standard procedure for raising tensions. Still, depending on how things unfold, a shutdown is still a possibility.

North Korea’s aim appears to be breaking through the US’s refusal to respond to its demands to “abandon policies of antagonism.” A South Korean government official characterized the recent efforts by North Korea to raise tensions as “a strategy to get the US to take action by jabbing South Korea where it hurts.”

And the strategy appears to have paid off somewhat. A senior Foreign Ministry official who recently returned from a meeting with high-ranking US authorities said he felt the sense that the US was taking the North Korea issue much more seriously than it had in the past. “The press was giving the North Korea issue a lot more in-depth coverage than before,” the official said.

There is a good chance Pyongyang will continue ramping up tensions in the near future. Of particular note is its demand that diplomatic missions in Pyongyang present evacuation plans by Apr. 10. That day is the one-year anniversary of Kim Jong-un taking over as Workers’ Party of Korea first secretary and Apr. 12 marks one year since he became first chairman of the National Defense Commission. Apr. 15 is the 101st birthday of former leader Kim Il-sung. Many observers are saying additional provocations could be timed to coincide with any of these days. In the past, North Korea has launched rockets as “political salutes” around dates associated with its leaders.

Military authorities in South Korea and the US are watching intently. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Jung Seung-jo postponed a scheduled trip to the US on April 16 to attend the ROK-US Military Committee meeting, while James Thurman, the commander of USFK, put off plans to attend hearings at the US Senate and House Armed Services Committees.

In particular, authorities are looking at the Musudan missile as a possible source of provocation. The missile, which has a firing range of 3,000 to 4,000 km, was recently moved toward North Korea’s East Sea coast. It has never been test-launched, although there have been several engine tests.

Another possibility is a fourth nuclear test. A Ministry of National Defense official said North Korea had completed its preparations for its last nuclear test at an unused tunnel in the country’s south.

“We’re looking at a situation where nuclear tests could be held on a regular basis,” the official said.

The waters around the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West (Yellow) Sea are also seen as the possible site for a provocation.

In response to North Korea’s move, the US positioned Aegis destroyers and X-band radar in the West Pacific Ocean near Japan. A Terminal High Altitude Aerial Missile Defense system was also set up on Guam, where the US has a military base. Kyodo news agency and other sources reported on Apr. 8 that Japan, which issued a “destroy order” for North Korean missiles, sent two Aegis destroyers from its Maritime Self-Defense Force into the East Sea with SM-3 interception missiles on board. The New York Times reported on Apr. 7 that South Korea and the US were formulating plans to respond more sternly than in the past to North Korean provocations, while restricting the counterstrike to a level that would not escalate into all-out war.

The problem is that the provocations from North Korea are poised to ramp up tensions on the Korean Peninsula. A senior official in Seoul said that if North Korea conducts another missile launch or nuclear test, additional sanctions “would have to be discussed” according to a United Nations resolution barring any nuclear tests of launches using ballistic missile technology. Additional sanctions could trigger a vicious cycle where North Korea’s objections lead to further provocations.

A South Korean government authority said Kim Yong-chol, head of the (North) Korean People’s Army General Reconnaissance Bureau, had reportedly held an Apr. 7 briefing where representatives of diplomatic missions in Pyongyang were summoned and told that the situation was “grave” because of threats from the US and South Korea. This came after another similar briefing on April 5.

As the situation deteriorates, many are making renewed calls for dialogue. Former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who met with then-North Korean leader Kim Jong-il in October 2000, appeared on the CBS television on Apr. 7 saying that talking to Pyongyang was “important.”

“If they were to return to the agreements that they made [at the six-party talks] in 2005, we should be willing to talk to them,” Albright said.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]