The Korean peninsula in a peaceless state

Posted on : 2013-04-10 15:32 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Recent rash of troubles shows loss of the trust that was built over years of cooperation
 which is currently closed down. Due to an entry ban
which is currently closed down. Due to an entry ban

By Gil Yun-hyung, Jung Hwan-bong and Hong Dae-sun staff reporters

The Kaesong Industrial Complex, which was the last prop shoring up unsteady inter-Korean relations, ceased operating on Apr. 9. Online, numerous netizens expressed their concerns about the possibility of a localized conflict. Volatility in the South Korean stock market increased, and sales of essential goods went up at supermarkets. The edifice of peace on the Korean peninsula that the Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun governments erected with difficulty over the course of ten years has disappeared without a trace in only five years.

The sewing machines of Kaesong, which started running in Dec. 2004, stopped spinning only nine years and four months later. This did not happen during the three North Korean nuclear tests, after the sinking of the Cheonan warship in Mar. 2010, or after the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in Oct. 2010.

“Today, the North Korean workers did not show up at the factory,” said an employee from a company at the Kaesong Complex who had come back through the CIQ (customs, immigration, quarantine) office on the Gyeongui Line in Paju, Gyeonggi Province at 10 am on the same day. “It’s all over now.” There was pain filling the employee’s voice.

In the Kaesong Complex, the nearly 250 commuter busses that had shuttled the 54,000 North Korean workers to the factories every morning around 8 am were not moving, either.

An employee from another company had come across the border in a car that was packed with 1,000 sports outfits that were needed to meet a product delivery deadline. When asked about the situation on the ground, he asked, “How am I going to feed my family?” He seemed ready to burst into tears.

71 people crossed over to South Korea on Apr. 9, while 408 employees, including 2 foreigners, have stayed in Kaesong, hanging on to a sliver of hope.

“Just last December when North Korea launched the satellite, it didn’t really register with me,” said someone surnamed Kim, 40, who is working at a university in Seoul. But as Kim kept track of the growing urgency of the situation over the past few weeks, it suddenly occurred to him that this could lead to war. During that time, the US continued to bring over sophisticated weaponry, and extreme rhetoric kept flying back and forth between the North and South, with neither side willing to back down. Kim periodically checks stock prices, worried that the value of his stocks will drop.

Residents on Yeonpyeong Island, who experienced a North Korean shelling in Nov. 2010, couldn’t be any more nervous.

“A hundred people have already left the island because of anxiety about what might happen,” said Shin Il-geun, leader of a youth organization. “Today, the neighborhood heads are planning to get together and ask the government to prepare a relocation plan.”

“Demand for necessities such as ramen noodles, bottled water, and butane is up around 10-20% from a week ago,” said an employee at an E-Mart branch in Seoul. “You wouldn’t call this hoarding, but it is a significant change.”

The top item in the “social picks” section on the internet portal site Daum as of 10 pm on Apr. 9 was “foreigner evacuation plans,” with 50,000 searches, 600 tweets, and 7,700 comments made on the subject.

On the stock market, the KOSPI 200 volatility index was at 18.72, shooting up to the highest level in six months. Since this index skyrockets when stock prices drop, it is called the “fear index.” The premium on the credit default swap (CDS) on 5-year government bonds increased to 88bp (1bp=0.01 percentage point), up 27bp from the end of last year. Higher CDS premiums indicate a greater risk of the issuer defaulting.

The suspension of operations at the Kaesong Complex also means that the CIQ office, which on Jun. 27, 2012 announced that more than a million people had crossed the border since the Gyeongui Line temporary road was opened on Mar. 21, 2003, effectively stopped functioning on Apr. 9. This is the road down which former president Roh Moo-hyun walked at 9 am on Oct. 2, 2007, when he crossed the military demarcation line. But on Apr. 9, the road that Roh walked down was completely blocked by barbed wire as rain fell around the CIQ office.

Clutching at straws for any kind of solution, the companies operating at the Kaesong Complex held a press conference on the same day at the Korea Federation of Small and Medium Businesses in Yeouido, Seoul, where they made an anxious appeal that the South and North Korean authorities take action to find a resolution to this situation through dialogue. Will the North and South Korean governments listen to their appeal? The peace we had been longing for is gone, and all that remains is mutual distrust and contempt.

 

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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