hankyoreh

By Park Byong-su, staff reporter

It has now been one year since Kim Jong-un replaced his father Kim Jong-il as leader of North Korea. The country’s actions recently have been atypical for a number of reasons. There have indeed been cases in the past when the North has made provocations around the time a new government has come to power in the US or South Korea in a bid to gain leverage in future negotiations. However, it is difficult to find an example of past provocations that have lasted as long, been as strident, or exhibited the belligerence that has been seen lately.

North Korea’s bellicose rhetoric and behavior have already lasted for more than three months since the launch of a long-range rocket in Dec. 2012. During this process, Pyongyang has brought to bear just about every available method of intimidation. Along with a barrage of rhetoric, including comments about turning Seoul into a ‘sea of fire’, waging a second Korean War, and making a preemptive nuclear strike, the North has also taken actual measures such as conducting a third nuclear test, nullifying the Armistice Agreement and reactivating the nuclear reactor at Yongbyon. And at last the North has even ordered a temporary shutdown of the Kaesong Industrial Complex, which had been operating without smoothly despite the ongoing conflict between the Koreas.

Some analysts are suggesting that the unusually hard-hitting approach that North Korea has adopted recently is connected with the rise of Kim Jong-un. They suggest that various internal factors are behind the confrontational stance the North has taken toward the outside world. These factors include Kim’s unsteady grip on power, which he has held for one year as of Apr. 11, and the hot temper of a man in his late twenties. Indeed, the news reports being released by North Korea seem to show Kim taking the lead in causing the confrontation. On Mar. 15, the North Korean state-run paper Rodong Shinmun reported that Kim had given orders to “break the backs of the lunatics who are crazy enough to oppose us, and make sure they are completely dead.”

The development that is attracting the most attention is that North Korea seems more determined to keep its nuclear weapons than ever before. On Apr. 1, the Supreme People’s Assembly officially adopted a two-track program of concurrently developing the economy and nuclear weapons. It also enacted a law designed to reinforce the North’s status as a country that keeps nuclear weapons as a form of self-defense. The law provides the legal grounds for possessing nuclear weapons. A general assembly of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party that was held on Mar. 30 announced the North would be working to “expand and strengthen our nuclear arsenal, in both qualitative and quantitative terms.”

The attitude being shown by North Korea indicates that it does not intend to take part in denuclearization talks in which it would give up its nuclear program in exchange for financial aid and a guarantee of security from the US and the international community. In a statement released in January, the North Korean foreign ministry clearly stated, “there will be no talks of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.” Instead, the ministry indicated its willingness to participate in “talks for guaranteeing the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and the region.” This means that talks for denuclearization will only become possible after a peace treaty has been signed. However, since this flies directly in the face of the basic US position that it will not take part in peace talks until North Korea gives up its nuclear weapons, there does not appear to be any middle ground.

“Taken at face value, North Korea is saying that it wants to build its nuclear arsenal while also receiving economic aid,” said a government official. “There is no apparent room for compromise.”

However, there are other observers who think that North Korea will have no choice but to compromise on the nuclear issue. North Korea’s recent provocations, they argue, in the end are a plea for other countries to abandon their hostile policies and to recognize that the North is a normal sovereign state in the international community. In this sense, it is inevitable that the North must make some concessions on the issues that the US is most concerned about.

“It is true that North Korea’s recent attitude regarding nuclear weapons has become much more strident than in the past,” said Kim Yeon-cheol, professor at Inje University. “However, North Korea has had a tendency to use provocations to raise the stakes before it enters negotiations. While it is inevitable that the price to be paid in negotiations over the North Korean nuclear program will be higher than before, a solution can still be found through dialogue.”

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