hankyoreh

By Park Byong-su, staff reporter

With North Korea rejecting the proposal for talks made by the US and South Korea, it appears less likely that the critical situation on the Korean peninsula will be solved anytime soon. Neither are there any signs that North Korea will immediately move to ratchet up military tensions again by going ahead with another provocation. It has become more likely that the slow-simmering but potentially deadly confrontation will continue for the time being.

On Apr. 16, North Korea dismissed the overture for dialogue made by John Kerry, US Secretary of State, as “a cunning ploy,” and on the following day refused to give South Korean businessmen access to the Kaesong Industrial Complex, saying that “the South is responsible for the current situation.” The moves make clear that North Korea has no intention of accepting denuclearization, which is the precondition that the US and South Korea have placed on talks.

North Korea has already explained why it will not give up its nuclear weapons. “Even without increasing the defense budget, we can now strengthen the nation’s defensive ability at a low cost while also making a great effort to build the economy and improve the lives of the people,” North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said at a plenary session of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party on Mar. 31. Given the fact that South Korea has effectively gained the upper hand in the conventional arms race between North and South, North Korea has decided that nuclear weapons are the only way to maintain military balance.

Basically, in North Korea’s survival strategy, nuclear weapons are no longer a bargaining chip that can be traded for economic assistance from outside. Rather, they have been elevated to a core security asset that can serve as a deterrent.

The North’s attitude can be seen as reflecting its unfavorable assessment of the talks about dismantling its nuclear program that have taken place between the US and the North since the 1994 Agreed Framework was signed in Geneva.

“From North Korea’s perspective, they have talked about the nuclear issue and even taken part in the six-party talks for almost twenty years, but in the end there has been no resolution to the hostile relations between North Korea and the US and the threats to the North Korean regime,” said a South Korean government official. “This is why it was possible for people in North Korea to become pessimistic about the talks.”

It is not easy to guess what North Korea will do next. The recent tensions on the Korean peninsula were triggered by the North Korean backlash against the two resolutions to impose sanctions on North Korea that were passed by the UN Security Council (UNSC) in January and March. North Korea has also treated the US-ROK Key Resolve and Foal Eagle combined military exercises as a pretext for additional provocations. Insofar as that is the case, it seems likely that the current confrontation will not wind down before the end of this month, when these exercises conclude.

Even so, chances are not high that the North will push tensions further with a missile launch or some other new kind of provocation. Though increasing military tensions recently, North Korea was able to demonstrate its ability to present a military threat to the outside world while shoring up the regime inside the country. In other words, it has accomplished what it set out to do.

“It appears that we are approaching a time when both sides will start looking for an exit strategy,” said Kim Yong-hyun, a professor at Dongguk University. “Since the North believes that the ball is in the opponent’s court, for the time being they are less likely to engage in a major provocation than to ponder their next move as they watch to see what the US and South Korea will do.”

The summit between the leaders of South Korea and the US, which is scheduled for May 7, may well be a turning point. At present, the political will in South Korea and the US to convert the situation on the Korean peninsula into an atmosphere for talks has run out of steam.

However, if South Korean President Park Geun-hye and US President Barack Obama come to a consensus and emerge from their summit with a new policy toward North Korea, it is possible that a new wind could start to blow.

“North Korea has not yet clearly declared that it is rejecting talks, nor has it openly criticized Park by name,” said Yang Mu-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. “North Korea has also left open the door for dialogue. The summit talks between the US and South Korea in May will be the watershed point.”

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