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vice marshal of the Korean People’s Army

By Park Byong-su, staff reporter and Seong Yeon-cheol, Beijing correspondent

The abrupt visit to China made by Choe Ryong-hae, vice marshal of the Korean People’s Army, the official name of the North Korean military, is attracting attention. Choe was an unusual selection as a special envoy and his visit comes at a delicate time.

Following North Korea’s launch of a long-range missile in Dec. 2012, its third nuclear test in Feb. 2013, and the subsequent sanctions passed by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), the Korean peninsula has been stuck in a perpetual mode of confrontation. North Korea’s actions reflect their need to show something both domestically and internationally, but have served to further isolate the country.

In particular, the North has been alienated even from China, its only ally. There have been no meetings between high-ranking officials from China and North Korea since Li Jianguo, vice chairman of the National People’s Congress and a member of the politburo, visited North Korea in Nov. 2012.

The first thing that can be inferred from North Korea’s decision to send a special envoy to China is that Pyongyang is committed to repairing its relations with China, which have become estranged in recent months. For North Korea, China is not only one of its few points of contact with the outside world, but also a source of economic assistance that is essential for the country’s survival. The important role of China means that the North cannot afford to let strained relations with China continue for long.

“It appears that North Korea is looking for a way out of its predicament,” said an unidentified diplomatic source in Beijing. “Pyongyang will probably try to explain to China why it had no choice but to behave as it has done in a bid to bring China over to its side.”

In the wider context, there are also those who see the move as a sign that North Korea is ready for dialogue to resume among the various parties involved with the Korean peninsula.

Since relations cooled, China has taken a harder line with North Korea than ever before. It endorsed the UNSC sanctions against the North, and it froze accounts at North Korea’s Foreign Trade Bank.

The fact that China has accepted North Korea’s special envoy indicates that China has been given reason to believe that North Korea’s attitude about its nuclear program has changed.

“It is notable that North Korea openly dispatched a special envoy to China just before the US-China summit meeting scheduled for next month,” said another diplomatic source in Beijing. “It seems that Pyongyang is trying to send a signal to the US that it wants to talk about the nuclear issue via China.”

“There are probably issues that North Korea and China have to work out before the summit meeting between the US and China,” said Kim Yeon-cheol, a professor at Inje University. “The fact that North Korea has started making a move can be seen as a sign that there may be a way to break out of the deadlock on the Korean peninsula.”

Also noteworthy is the fact that it was Choe Ryong-hae who was chosen to be the special envoy. The last time that one of the highest powerbrokers in the North Korean military was sent as a special envoy to another country was 2000, when Jo Myong-rok visited the US. At the time, Jo was vice chairman of the National Defense Commission as well as vice marshal of the Korean People’s Army, the same position as Choe.

“The fact that such a senior military figure would be sent as a special envoy shows that China wants to deliberate with North Korea on the issues of its nuclear weapons and long-range missile programs,” said Jeong Seong-jang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute. “If Choe was authorized to make the concessions that China wants to see such as North Korea giving up its nuclear weapons tests I think that they could also talk about holding a summit between North Korea and China.”

“Since May, North Korea has refrained from carrying out provocative actions and has put the focus on economic growth, suggesting it is laying the groundwork for negotiations,” said Kim Yeon-su, a professor at the Korea National Defense University. “The military’s position is crucial in the nuclear weapons program, and this appears to be why such an influential member of the military was sent to China.”

Nevertheless, there are also those who believe it would be hasty to conclude that Choe will be offering China a proposal that could transform the state of affairs on the Korean peninsula and resolve the nuclear issue.

Considering that North Korea has officially announced that it is promoting a two-track policy of expanding its nuclear capabilities while building its economy, analysts expect it would be difficult for them to give any ground on the nuclear question.

“In terms of timing, it seems too early for North Korea to start moving toward talks,” said an senior South Korean government official. “Rather than offering a proposal to break the deadlock, it seems more likely that North Korea hopes to persuade China to support its policies.”

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