hankyoreh

Jang Song-thaek sat in an audacious posture as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un addressed a convention. His attitude was in sharp contrast with the other officials in attendance.

By Park Byong-su, staff reporter

The reported ouster of Jang Song-thaek, uncle of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, reported to the National Assembly on Dec. 3 by the National Intelligence Service, comes as a major shock in terms of timing and Jang’s standing in the Pyongyang power structure.

Jang, the head of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) Central Administration Department, is known to have been a key figure in launching the Kim Jong-un regime on a stable footing. Analysts are now saying that if he did lose his position, possible reasons may include a reshaping of Kim’s inner circle, a power battle with People’s Army politburo chief Choi Ryong-hae, or objections to economic reforms.

According to the NIS, Jang’s ouster likely came some time in late November. Jang has not been seen in public since joining Kim at an Oct. 10 recital for the 68th anniversary of the WPK and meeting a delegation led by Japanese House of Councilors member Kanji Inoki on Nov. 6. The NIS believes that Jang’s ouster would have come not long afterwards.

“We are not aware of any reports in the North Korean media since Nov. 6 that would lead us to surmise something had happened to Jang,” said a senior official from the Ministry of Unification on condition of anonymity.

No specifics are available on why Jang would have fallen from power, but one of the leading theories is that it had to do with recent frictions between him and Choi, considered the two main regime heavyweights after Kim Jong-un. Observers are speculating that Jang may have lost out in a power struggle between the two.

The two men are known to have been quite close, with some sources reporting them as “blood brothers.” But things reportedly soured during the lead up to and execution of last year’s long-range rocket launch and this February’s third nuclear test, where Jang represented the moderates and Choi the hardliners.

Cheong Seong-chang, a senior fellow at the Sejong Institute, said Choi and State Security Department (SSD) chief Kim Won-hong appear to have been behind the arrest and execution of some of Jang’s close associates on corruption charges.

“With that move, Choi effectively cemented himself as second-in-command,” Cheong said.

Another analysis was that Jang’s ouster may have come as part of a move from a group-led “guardian system” to one of single-person leadership. Indeed, a number of “father figures” were crowded out of the power structure as the Kim regime established itself: People’s Army chief of general staff Ri Yong-ho, first politburo deputy director Kim Jong-gak, and first SSD deputy chief U Dong-chuk.

According to some analysts, Jang’s removal should be interpreted along similar lines. Adding to the speculation is a Dec. 1 report in the Rodong Sinmun newspaper declaring the establishment of a “system of single command by Kim Jong-un, whose destiny we shall share until the end of the world.”

Another possibility that has been suggested is that Jang was punished for failure to improve the economy and relations with China, which he was responsible for. Jang was North Korean chairman of a joint North Korean-Chinese leadership committee for co-development and co-administration of the Rason Special Economic Zone and the Hwanggumpyong-Wihwa Island Economic Zone. He also played a central role in relations with Beijing, visiting then-Chinese president Hu Jintao there in August 2012.

But relations with China have been floundering. Kim, who has been in power for nearly two years, has yet to visit the country, and little progress has been made in the development push in the Hwanggumpyong-Wihwa Economic Zone.

“The lack of any clear results to point to in the economy and relations with China, which were two of Kim Jong-un’s key interests, may have given the hardliners the excuse they needed to go after Jang,” said Kim Yeon-soo, a professor at Korea National Defense University.

It remains to be seen whether Jang’s fall is temporary or permanent. In July 2003, he disappeared from the public eye for two and a half years over “factional activities,” only to eventually be reinstated. The possibility of something similar happening this time would appear to depend on why he was ousted in the first place.

Meanwhile, Jung Cheong-rae, the DP’s secretary on the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, said he had heard reports that Jang’s wife, WPK secretary Kim Kyong-hui, had “questioned [Kim Jong-un] on whether it was necessary to relieve Jang of power.”

Jung’s saying that even Kim Jong-un’s aunt was unable to rescue her husband adds further weight to the possibility that the action was intended as a stern punishment.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]