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Jan. 18. (News1)

By Choi Hyun-june, staff reporter and Seok Jin-hwan, Blue House correspondent in Bern

In response to repeated proposals from North Korea on Jan. 16 and Jan. 18, South Korean President Park Geun-hye said that the South should take even more precautions about provocations from the North at times like this. Park’s words have been criticized as pouring cold water on the possibility of improving inter-Korean relations and in fact are giving the North an excuse to make a military provocation.

“At times like this - when North Korea is engaging in this kind of propaganda campaign - there is even more reason to do everything we can to maintain an impregnable security stance in which we take every precaution against provocations from the North,” Park instructed ministers in the areas of diplomacy and security on Jan. 18, during her trip to India.

A senior official at the Blue House went a step further. “History and experience show us that North Korea has a pattern of carrying out a military provocation against the South after going on a camouflaged peace offensive of this sort,” the official said. “If North Korea wants dialogue and peace on the Korean peninsula, it would take some kind of practical steps for denuclearization to show that it means business.” This represents a hard-line stance that makes denuclearization a condition for talks between North and South, whereby hardliners snub Pyongyang’s proposal while citing historical precedents. Typically, the nuclear issue has been addressed not in inter-Korean dialogue but rather in the six-party talks or in dialogue between North Korea and the US.

On Jan. 16, North Korea’s National Defence Commission asked the South to refrain from slander and hostile military activity. After Seoul’s Unification Ministry brushed aside this proposal on Jan. 17, the North Korea announced through the state-run newspaper Rodong Sinmun that it would move ahead with its part of the important proposal. The North is showing a highly proactive attitude, indicating that it will move forward with refraining from slander and hostile military activity whether or not the South Korean government accepts its proposal.

President Park’s reaction reflects the attitude that Pyongyang’s words should not be trusted until it takes action to back them up. Park is acting according to the standard principle that North Korea must act first if it is to gain the trust of South Korea and the international community.

Nevertheless, some observers argue that Park’s hard-line remarks are inappropriate. They claim that Park is casting North Korea’s intention to improve inter-Korean relations through dialogue in the worst possible light, needlessly provoking the North. Indeed, even if the South Korean government does not agree to cancel its joint military exercises with the US, refraining from mutual slander is an acceptable proposal.

“Even if you don’t trust your opponent, it is necessary to be flexible in order to prevent provocations and keep military tension from rising,” said Cheong Seong-chang, senior analyst at the Sejong Institute. “A response like the one given by the Park government could actually trigger a provocation.”

Park’s claim that North Korea’s proposals are a camouflaged peace offensive have been criticized for reflecting old ways of thinking. The argument is that, with South Korea dominating the North in almost every area since the 1980s, it is unlikely that the North could make a sneak attack on the South after making professions of peace.

“Most probably, this is not a camouflaged peace offensive but rather reflects the desperate economic situation in the North,” said Kim Geun-shik, professor at Kyungnam University. If the South goes ahead with military exercises, the North has no choice but to respond, and this sort of military tension may stretch the North’s capacity at the present time.“ The joint US-ROK Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercises will take place for two months, starting at the end of February.

Considering President Park’s obstinate and rigid attitude, it seems likely that tensions between North and South will continue for now. ”The Kim Young-sam administration lost in the local elections in 1995 after creating an atmosphere of rapprochement with the North by providing food aid,“ said Jeong Se-hyeon, president of Wonkwang University and former Unification Minister. ”Based on the government’s recent stance, it appears that it will try to maintain tensions at least through June, when the local elections will take place.“

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