hankyoreh

Jan. 26. (by Park Jong-shik

By Choi Hyun-june and Ha Eo-young, staff reporters

Reunions between members of divided South and North Korean families may take place as early as mid-February.

The reunions, which have already been postponed once, appear likely to go ahead this time, but a number of key variables remain, including South Korea’s military exercises with the US and the still-idle Mt. Keumgang tourism venture.

A senior South Korean official said on Jan. 26 on condition of anonymity that the government had decided on its position after North Korea accepted the reunion proposal on Jan. 24, adding that it planned to send notice by telephone the following day.

Seoul is now looking at mid-February as the best time for reunions. The reasoning is that the Key Resolve and Foal Eagle military exercises, which will take place between late February and mid-April, could lead North Korea to object and decline to go ahead with the reunions.

Meeting with members of one divided family on Jan. 25, Prime Minister Chung Hong-won promised that the date for the reunions would be set “as soon as possible.”

Because North Korea left the matter of timing up to the South, it does appear likely to accept the mid-February date if Seoul proposes it. Leading candidate dates include the period between Feb. 16 - the day after the birthday of late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, one of the country’s biggest celebrations - and Feb. 23, shortly before the military exercises begin.

The number of participants is also likely to remain at 100 families, the same as chosen for the event for the Chuseok (Korean harvest festival) holiday in 2013. Four families are unable to meet, some because of deaths, leaving a total of 96 families.

“We need to hold discussions with North Korea on whether to do it with just the 96 families or select another four,” said an official with the South Korean Ministry of Unification.

“There may not be any additional selections because of the time it would take to select additional families and have North Korea locate the relatives,” the official added on condition of anonymity.

Two key factors appear set to determine whether the event goes off well. The first of them is the joint military exercises, to which North Korea has repeatedly expressed its opposition. Indeed, some analysts suggest the reason North Korea belatedly accepted President Park Geun-hye’s Jan. 6 proposal to hold reunions after initially rejected it is because it hopes to “soften” the exercises.

“I’m sure North Korea doesn’t really think it‘s possible to stop the South Korea-US joint exercises from happening altogether,” said Jeong Chang-hyeon, an adjunct professor at Kookmin University. “But they do need to save some face.”

Fortunately, the Ministry of National Defense has already announced that the 2014 exercises - unlike last year’s - will not include strategic bombers such as the B-2 and B-52 that are capable of carrying a nuclear payload.

Still, some are concerned that the reunions could end up being put off until after the exercises end in mid-April - or that North Korea could cancel them altogether if South Korea and the US hold the same kind of large-scale exercises as last year. The worry is that the exercises could remain a “card” North Korea may choose to play.

Another factor is tourism to Mt. Keumgang in North Korea, which has been closed since the 2008 shooting death of a South Korean tourist. Pyongyang has consistently demanded the complex’s reopening as a “package deal” with the reunions. While it did not mention the issue when accepting the reunion offer on Jan. 24, it may ask for or expect steps during the preparation process. The situation calls for some forward-thinking consideration of the issue by Seoul if it hopes to establish a stable relationship with Pyongyang for the sake of the reunions.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of National Defense said it plans to provide North Korea and China with notice in early February about the schedule for Key Resolve, the joint military exercises set to take place in the last week of the month. Washington and Seoul refused to accept North Korea’s demand for a halt to exercises around the peninsula as part of its “momentous proposal”.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]