hankyoreh

Director General of the Japanese Foreign Ministry’s Asian and Oceanian Affairs Bureau

By Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

A senior South Korean government official said on Apr. 8 that Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo may consider some flexibility on the “preliminary denuclearization steps” they have demanded from Pyongyang as a condition for resuming the six-party talks on the North Korean nuclear issue.

Speaking with foreign correspondents in Washington, the official said the focus of the recent meeting among the three countries’ senior representatives to the talks was on “responding sternly to additional North Korean provocations,” but added that they were “also looking for different ways of resuming dialogue.”

The opening of a possibility for dialogue alongside plans for a stern response to provocations - at a time when North Korea has mentioned the possibility of a fourth nuclear test - suggests the countries are hoping to prevent things from escalating and lay groundwork to start dialogue again at some point.

The official stressed that Seoul’s position was “essentially no different” from its previous one, holding that negotiations were “possible as long as North Korea is sincerely pursuing denuclearization.”

At the same time, the official said, “We could be a bit more flexible in what we consider the meaning of ‘preliminary denuclearization steps’ to be.” When asked if the US agreed, the official replied in the affirmative.

The official also hinted that South Korea, the US, and Japan could soften their demands on what would be needed to resume the six-party talks.

“When and how North Korea shows the sincerity of its denuclearization could be a topic of discussion,” the official said.

During talks last June, senior representatives from the three countries demanded a “stronger obligation than the Leap Day agreement” - the so-called “Leap Day plus alpha” - as a condition for restarting dialogue. In the Leap Day agreement reached on Feb. 29, 2012, North Korea agreed to a moratorium on nuclear tests and long-range missile launches and a temporary halt to nuclear activities at its Yongbyon facility, including uranium enrichment, and said it would allow monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). According to sources, the “alpha” had to do with uranium enrichment facilities.

The official backpedaled somewhat when asked whether the countries were changing their position on the “Leap Day plus alpha” demand, saying that it “hasn’t changed,” but added, “We’re still in the abstract stage, where we need to have additional research and examination on what direction to go next.”

“To get a fuller picture, it’s important to discuss matters not just with the US and Japan, but with China too,” the official said.

On the possibility of a fourth nuclear test and North Korea’s claims of a “new form of nuclear testing,” the official said, “There’s been a lot of speculating among experts, but you can’t really say there’s any definite intelligence at present.”

Now that a senior government official has mentioned the possibility of a more flexible interpretation of “preliminary steps,” the next question is what this will mean as a continuation of the North Korea policy announced by President Park Geun-hye during a trilateral meeting last month in The Hague. While she did not refer to preliminary denuclearization steps at the time, Park did say, “If we can achieve real progress on denuclearization and there are guarantees to prevent the advancement of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, then we can consider many possible plans regarding the resumption of dialogue.”

The “preliminary steps” question has been one of the biggest stumbling blocks to resuming the six-party talks. Seoul and Washington have demanded concrete action from Pyongyang to demonstrate its sincere commitment before any dialogue happens, while North Korea has insisted on dialogue without conditions. Some experts, including former US State Department special representative for North Korea policy Stephen Bosworth, have advised an approach where South Korea and the US soften their preconditions and North Korea takes some “trust-building” steps before dialogue begins, but both sides have remained unswayed. While the latest remarks are at least partly intended to keep the situation under control, they could also mean a breakthrough in resuming dialogue if Park gets behind the message and Washington shows its support.

At the same time, the fact that a senior official is talking about “considering flexibility” doesn’t appear to mean that the threshold for dialogue is being lowered right away. Rather, if the current tensions are resolved and the groundwork for dialogue is put in place, Seoul could approach things more flexibly than it’s doing now.

This means the first key to resuming to dialogue is whether the countries can get through April without incident. The month includes a number of important occasions, including Kim Il-sung’s birthday - the biggest national holiday in North Korea - on the 15th, and a planned South Korea visit by US President Barack Obama around the 25th and 26th. At the moment, things remain unpredictable, with North Korea hinting at the possibility of additional nuclear testing.

“If North Korea engages in provocations now, there’ll be no choice but to take a hard line,” said one diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“But if we get through the month without any provocations from North Korea, then there’s more room for finding ways of having dialogue as we move into the second half of the year,” the source added.

China’s actions will also be key. Many diplomatic observers are predicting that Wu Dawei, China’s special representative for Korean Peninsula appears, is working on an arbitration plan after visiting Pyongyang in mid-March.

“As things stand, it’s difficult for Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo on the one side and Pyongyang on the other to find any common ground for direct dialogue,” said one diplomatic source. “Ultimately, China’s going to have to play go-between.”

“If Wu Dawei comes to Washington and talks about his ideas, then there’ll be a process of South Korea, US, and Japan discussing them,” the source added.

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