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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visits the workers’ quarters of the Kim Jong-suk Textile Mill in Pyongyang

By Choi Hyun-june, staff reporter and Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

April passed without the fourth North Korean nuclear test that the South Korean Ministry of National Defense and other security and intelligence agencies had been predicting.

But signs still point to tensions drawing out into the long term, with North Korea seemingly holding off on the issue of nuclear testing. While the likelihood of an imminent test has decreased, the North is unlikely to give up the test option for good.

In an Apr. 29 statement, a North Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson wrote, “With the United States driving the clouds of nuclear war toward us, we intend to continue unswervingly on the path of a stronger nuclear deterrent.”

“There is no expiration date on our statement of March 30, when we declared that a new type of nuclear test could not be ruled out,” the statement continued.

The mention of “no expiration date” was the most attention-grabbing part of the statement in terms of the prospects of a fourth nuclear test. It suggests that North Korea may want to bide its time and keep the tensions at their current high levels rather than going ahead with a test right away. Its Foreign Ministry warnings before its first to third tests were comparatively direct.

The South Korean Ministry of National Defense was fairly confident with its predictions of a possible fourth test on Apr. 22, citing “talk in North Korea about ‘something major’ happening before Apr. 30 and ‘a big blow being prepared.’” Some analysts even went as far as to predict the test would come around the time of US President Barack Obama’s visit to South Korea on Apr. 25-26 and the Military Foundation Day holiday on Apr. 25.

Pyongyang is unlikely to have given up the nuclear test option completely. Toward the end of the Foreign Ministry statement, the spokesperson referred to a nuclear test as an “exercise of self-defense that no one can prevent.” It’s a message that argues the legitimacy of a nuclear test, and keeps the possibility alive.

“North Korea isn’t just going to hide away,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. “On Apr. 29, it carried out naval artillery exercises in the West [Yellow] Sea, and it now looks like it’s going to do low-intensity drills in the East Sea while watching to see how South Korea and the US react.”

North Korea’s artillery exercises also provide a hint of its desire to keep the tensions going. On Apr. 29, the North made a call to South Korea announcing the planned exercises on the West Sea coast. It was the second direct notification of upcoming drills since late March. Analysts said it appeared to want to stress that it was engaging in exercises, not provocations, and avoid unnecessary tensions.

“We’ve cleared the most immediate hurdle, but tensions between North Korea and the US are continuing to grow,” said Kim Chang-soo, director of research at the Korea National Strategy Institute.

“North Korea is going to keep toying with the method to use, nuclear testing or medium or long-range missiles, in view of its cooperative relationship with China and its hostile relationship with the US,” Kim predicted.

Meanwhile, the US continued urging North Korea to refrain from escalating tensions. Speaking at a regular briefing on Apr. 29, State Department spokesperson Jen Psaki said the US was “closely monitoring the situation on the Korean Peninsula.”

“We continue to urge North Korea to exercise restraint and refrain from actions that raise tensions,” she added.

Psaki also emphasized the US’s strong commitment to defending its allies, including South Korea.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]