hankyoreh

for the 14 year anniversary of the June 15 Joint Declaration. (photo by Lee Jong-geun

By Yi Yong-in, staff reporter

With little time left to have an impact this year, the next two months will be crucial for the Park Geun-hye administration’s inter-Korean relations. Experts are unanimous in their forecast of good and bad news in terms of cultivating relations with Pyongyang.

The upcoming schedule includes occasions for both potential celebration and tension: the blue crab season in the West (Yellow) Sea near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) that runs until late June; the anniversary of the July 4 Joint Declaration [of 1972]; the Independence Day holiday celebrated on Aug. 15; a visit by Pope Francis from 14 to 18 Aug. on the occasion of the Sixth Asian Youth Day; U.S.-South Korea Ulchi Freedom Guardian military exercises to begin around Aug. 19; and the 17th Asian Games in Incheon from Sept. 19 to Oct. 4.

If inter-Korean relations remain at their current tense levels, the biggest concern for experts is the late August military exercise to which they anticipate Pyongyang will respond very sensitively. Indeed, an Apr. 23 open letter to Park sent by the Committee for the Peaceful Unification of Korea, North Korea’s organization for South Korean affairs, specifically pressed the President on whether she was willing to halt the Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercises. “If some kind of turnaround in inter-Korean relations cannot be produced by mid-August, then Seoul should be concerned about North Korea’s response to the exercises,” said one senior government official on condition of anonymity. The official added, “If that happens, then President Park won’t be able to make any bold proposals to Pyongyang when Independence Day comes.”

If this prediction comes to pass, little progress can be expected in inter-Korean relations within the year. On the other hand, any improvements made this summer could reduce the impact of the exercises, especially in light of the tone created by the Pope’s visit and the anticipated Aug. 18 “mass for peace and reconciliation on the Korean Peninsula” to be held at Myeongdong Cathedral in Seoul. Experts say improvements in inter-Korean ties could gain some momentum if the mood carries over into the Asian Games, when the two sides will have to meet more frequently in order to address issues such as support for the North Korean team and the formation of cheering squads.

Kim Chang-soo, director of research at the Korea National Strategy Institute, says, “The first step towards improving relations, and the most important thing the President could do, would be to clearly state on the anniversary of the July 4 Joint Declaration 4 that South Korea does not plan to ‘absorb’ North Korea, there needs to be peace and coexistence, and she intends to respect the agreements reached by past South Korean and North Korean administrations.” The political situation unfolding around the peninsula suggests that this year may be Park’s last chance to seize the initiative in improving relations with North Korea during her term. Progress in negotiations between Pyongyang and Tokyo could produce a North Korea visit by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe late this year, and economic cooperation between North Korea and Russia is picking up steam. The state of relations between Pyongyang and Washington could also change once the November Congressional elections in the U.S. are over. If Park does not take advantage of the second half of 2014, she could find South Korea with little diplomatic room to maneuver next year, leaving the country a passive participant in regional political affairs.

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]