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shakes hands with Kim Yong-chol

By Choi Hyun-june, staff reporter

A major crossroads is looming for inter-Korean dialogue. Nearing two full years in office, many are saying the Park Geun-hye administration in Seoul needs to seize the opportunity if it hopes to make any lasting accomplishments in relations with Pyongyang.

South and North met on Oct. 15 for military talks, where they skirmished over the two major problem areas of late: the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West (Yellow) Sea and the launching of balloons carrying propaganda leaflets into North Korea. Little came of the meeting, but it was a significant step in terms of keeping up momentum for dialogue after an Oct. 4 visit to Incheon by a group of three core members of North Korea’s leadership, including People’s Army general political bureau chief Hwang Pyong-so.

“The NLL and the leaflets aren’t issues that can be resolved in one meeting,” said Kim Chang-soo, chief of research for the Korea National Strategy Institute. “It‘s significant enough that South and North Korea had their first military talks in 44 months.”

It’s too soon to tell if the dialogue push will lead to a second round of high-level talks. Analysts are saying the possibility is still alive, especially in light of political and economic factors pushing both sides in the direction of dialogue.

But some are also arguing Seoul‘s proposed date of Oct. 30 may not be realistic. To begin with, the leaflet launches by North Korean refugee groups in South Korea could push Pyongyang to cancel. While the Park administration may have adopted a more forward-thinking attitude than in the past, it has yet to show any kind of commitment to cracking down on the launches. Meanwhile, Pyongyang remains very sensitive about an issue it says insults its “supreme dignity.”

Another potential roadblock is the South Korea-US Security Consultative Meeting scheduled for Oct. 23 to 25. Topics on the agenda there could include the transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea and the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, a missile defense component. The outcome of the meeting could affect Pyongyang’s response.

“The reason North Korea proposed holding the senior talks in late October or early November is precisely because it was thinking about the Security Consultative Meeting,” said Chang Yong-seok, a senior researcher at the Seoul National University Institute for Peace and Unification Studies.

“That’s definitely a mountain we have to get over if the second round of high-level talks are going to get off the ground,” Chang predicted.

South Korea’s planned “Chungmu” military exercises, scheduled for Oct. 30, could also push Pyongyang to ask for a different date. The comprehensive wartime preparation exercises, which were first held in 1982, are not large-scale events like South Korea‘s joint exercises with the US, but they do incorporate military support resources.

“There are a lot of potential obstacles, with the leaflets, the Northern Limit Line, and the Security Consultative Meeting,” said Kim Chang-soo.

“If we’re going to get through this, we need President Park Geun-hye to send a message of conciliation to the North,” he advised.

On Thursday, North Korea‘s Korean Central News Agency released a report on the proceedings of the North-South military meetings on Wednesday. They attributed the meeting’s lack of results to what they called the South‘s “insolent attitude”.

They referred to President Park as South Korea’s “power holder”, much milder language than the insults they‘ve used to describe her in the past.

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