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North Korea analysts are predicting a new power structure may be introduced in 2015 to take the place of the old system under president Kim Il-sung and National Defense Commission chairman Kim Jong-il.

If it happens, the move would help to usher in a full-fledged “Kim Jong-un era” as the country marks the third anniversary of Kim Jong-il‘s death on Dec. 17.

The Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies (IFES) made the forecast in a “2015 Korean Peninsula Political Report” published on Nov. 30.

“The Kim Jong-un regime can be expected to attempt to try to ‘set itself apart’ from the Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il era,” the report predicted.

“With the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea next year, a new power structure suited to the Kim Jong-un era may be presented some time around the party anniversary [on Oct. 10], along the lines of the ‘supreme leader’ system of the Kim Il-sung era and the ‘NDC chairman’ system under Kim Jong-il,” it continued.

The report also predicted the possibility of a new “code” for autocratic rule along the lines of Kim Il-sung‘s juche philosophy and Kim Jong-il’s “military first” approach.

The change would have precedents, Kyungnam University professor Yang Moo-jin noted.

“Kim Il-sung did away with the Central People’s Committee when he created the presidential system, while Kim Jong-il changed the Constitution to turn the NDC into the supreme organization of power,” Yang said.

“There’s also the possibility that Kim Jong-un could come out with his own distinct ‘brand,’” he added.

“It does appear he will try to present some original method all his own.”

The report also noted changing trends with the North Korean economy.

“Indigenous market developments are creating pressures for reform, and the shift toward a market economy is becoming the dominant current of the times,” it said, adding that Pyongyang “could come out with economic measures aimed at boosting the level of the people’s livelihoods to mark the 70th anniversary of the [Workers’ Party of Korea] establishment.”

On the diplomatic front, the report predicted Kim may make a surprise push for summits with visits to China and Russia next year as a way of “showing off” his regime’s stability.

“With next year marking the 70th anniversary of the Korean Peninsula’s division, [North Korea] could make an active push to improve relations with Seoul to demonstrate Kim Jong-un’s leadership ability,” it added.

The Park Geun-hye administration in Seoul may also “take active steps to improve inter-Korean relations out of long-term economic recession concerns and consideration for changing political trends in Northeast Asia,” the report said.

“If this happens, the key question is whether the May 24 measures are lifted,” it added, referring to the restrictions on trade and interchange imposed after the 2010 sinking of the ROKS Cheonan warship.

By Son Won-je, staff reporter

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