hankyoreh

“In the past, China regarded North Korea as a sworn ally, but since Xi Jinping became president, China has started basing its policy on its national interest.”

“Relations between North Korea and China have been undergoing a fundamental transformation” since Xi Jinping came to power in China, said Wang Junsheng, an expert on North Korea, during an interview with the Hankyoreh on Dec. 4.

Wang is a researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies (IAPS), part of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).

Hankyoreh (Hani): What is your assessment of the current state of relations between North Korea and China, one year after the execution of Jang Song-thaek?

Wang Junsheng (Wang): The relationship between China and North Korea is still critical. North Korea regards China as its most important partner, and China values North Korea for economic, geographic, and strategic reasons. But there is a problem in the bilateral relationship, as is evidenced by the fact that interaction between high-ranking officials has been suspended since the beginning of the year.

The fundamental problem is North Korea’s nuclear program. North Korea is refusing to accept China’s demands that it abandon its nuclear weapons. It is unlikely that relations will improve until this issue is resolved.

Hani: How was China’s policy toward North Korea different before and after Xi Jinping became president?

Wang: First of all, Xi holds to the principle that China’s national interest cannot be compromised. In the past, China thought of North Korea as a sworn ally. Even when North Korea carried out nuclear tests that went against China‘s interest, China tried to cover for North Korea. It regarded these issues as a problem for the two allies to resolve.

But things are different with Xi. Xi takes a firm stance with any country that endangers China’s national interest.

Second, there is no kind of personal connection or trust between Xi and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Third, Xi regards South Korea as more important than North Korea, which is illustrated by his choice of South Korea as the first country to visit after taking office. Xi places more weight on South Korea than North Korea in his analysis of Northeast Asia diplomacy.

Hani: What is your prediction for relations between North Korea and China in the future?

Wang: The most important question is whether North Korea will adopt a clear and sincere attitude about abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Paradoxically, the strained relations that have persisted for the past two years have helped North Korea and China come to a clearer understanding of the importance of their relationship. Allowing their relations to remain chilly for much longer will be challenging for both of them.

Hani: What are the chances of Kim Jong-un visiting China?

Wang: I think chances are good that he will visit China next year. I have two reasons for thinking so. First, North Korea has reached out to the US, Japan, the EU, and Russia in order to break out of its isolation, but these efforts have been fruitless. North Korea must have realized that its relationship with China is the most important of all.

Second, there have been signs recently that North Korea is changing its attitude about abandoning its nuclear weapons, the precondition for Kim visiting China. When North Korean Vice Marshal Choe Ryong-hae visited Russia last month, he said that North Korea would return to the six-party talks without any preconditions.

There are also favorable signs among North Korea’s neighbors. With no elections scheduled for next year, which is South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s third year in office, Park will try to make some progress on the North Korean issue.

There is also a strong likelihood that US President Barack Obama will try to leave a diplomatic legacy next year before the next presidential election in 2016. If North Korea shows a change of heart and if the six-party talks resume, China will invite Kim Jong-un to visit.

By Seong Yeon-cheol, Beijing correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]