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addressing issues including North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year address and the launches of propaganda balloons

The balloon launches of propaganda pamphlets into North Korea are once again presenting an obstacle to inter-Korean relations, with experts predicting a reprise of what happened in October and November of 2014. At that time, the visit of three core figures in North Korea’s leadership to the South suggested progress would be made in dialogue between Seoul and Pyongyang, but a chill settled on inter-Korean relations after the second round of high-level talks was canceled because of the balloon launches.

North Korea is gradually putting more pressure on South Korea, insisting that the balloon launches must be discontinued before inter-Korean dialogue can resume.

In a statement by the spokesperson of the National Defense Commission released on the evening of Jan. 7, North Korea criticized President Park Geun-hye’s remarks about unification and demanded that the South Korean government make clear its position on a number of issues including unification by absorption, the South Korea-US joint military exercises, and the launches of balloons containing propaganda leaflets.

“It is only too apparent that no major change or transformation could be achieved in inter-Korean relations even if we were to sit down a thousand times with such government officials,” the statement said, referring to the unwillingness of the South Korean government to prevent the balloon launches for reasons such as the freedom of expression and the characteristics of the system.

In the statement, Pyongyang promised to pay close attention to the subsequent actions of the South Korean government, hinting that South Korea’s response would determine whether inter-Korean dialogue would resume.

In a broadcast titled “An Open Notification Sent to the Dastardly Villains Responsible for the Fratricidal Struggle,” the Pyongyang Broadcasting Station (PBS), a radio broadcast that North Korea produces for foreign markets, threatened that Park Sang-hak, leader of North Korean defector group Fighters for Free North Korea (FFNK), would have to “pay the blood price.” The group is planning to send DVDs of the American movie “The Interview,” about a plan to assassinate North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, in upcoming balloon launches to North Korea.

“This shows that the North Korean government bodies responsible for dealing with South Korea are doing their best to resolve the issue of the propaganda balloons that criticize the ’supreme dignity‘ of the North Korean leader. In this sense, the pressure they are putting on the South Korean government is grounded in the assumption that dialogue will resume,” said a South Korean government official on condition of anonymity.

The South Korean government finds itself in a bind. While the government of Park Geun-hye cannot alter its stance on the inviolability of the freedom of expression, neither can it let this golden opportunity to reopen talks with North Korea simply slip away. This dilemma is evident in the South Korean government’s response. Another factor at work here is the “battle of nerves,” in which Seoul strives not to bow to Pyongyang’s demands.

On Jan. 8, Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae appeared before the National Assembly’s Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee and said that the government’s current position about the launch of propaganda balloons remains the same, while noting that it would take appropriate measures in the interest of public safety. This suggests that, while the government will not interfere in the balloon launches in the interest of improving inter-Korean relations, as North Korea proposed, it could take steps to prevent the launches on the pretext of safety, which would still give the North what it wants. This can be seen either as a compromise, or a desperate gamble.

It remains to be seen how North Korea will react. Some experts believe that, since North Korea needs to move forward with inter-Korean talks this year, it could depart from the precedent set last year and agree to dialogue, accepting the South Korean government’s inadequate gesture of sincerity as being still better than nothing.

By Son Won-je, staff reporter

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