WSJ: Chinese expert estimates that N. Korea has 20 nuclear weapons

Posted on : 2015-04-24 15:42 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Chinese estimates are higher than those of US experts, who had put the number at around 10-16 warheads

China believes North Korea’s arsenal of nuclear warheads is much larger than US estimates, making it very concerned, a newspaper report suggests.

During a closed-door meeting of Chinese and American nuclear experts held in Beijing this past February, a senior Chinese nuclear expert estimated that North Korea currently holds 20 nuclear warheads and that it appears to have the enriched uranium needed to produce another 20 by 2016, the Wall Street Journal reported on Apr. 22, quoting a participant in the meeting.

The meeting was hosted by the China Institute of International Studies, a research institute affiliated with the Chinese foreign ministry. It was attended by a number of Chinese political, diplomatic, and technical experts on North Korean nuclear weapons.

Chinese experts believe that “the North Koreans have enough enriched uranium capacity to be able to make eight to 10 bombs’ worth of highly enriched uranium per year,” said Siegfried Hecker, an American nuclear expert and professor at Stanford University who was also in attendance.

Chinese estimates of North Korea’s nuclear stockpile are much higher than US estimates. Until recently, US experts on North Korean nuclear weapons had believed that North Korea possessed from 10 to 16 warheads. Even Hecker had said before that North Korea had fewer than 12 bombs and that this number would not surpass 20 through next year.

Reportedly, US government officials “expressed surprise” when they heard about what was said during the meeting.

“Estimates of North Korea’s capabilities by Chinese experts began to align with those in the US after 2010, and moved beyond after 2013, according to people familiar with exchanges on the matter between China and the US,” the Wall Street Journal said.

As North Korea’s nuclear capacity grows, China’s concerns are increasing along with it, the Wall Street Journal said.

“The fact that North Korea has enough nuclear weapons capacity to threaten the security of the US and its allies makes it a threat to regional security,”” said a Chinese expert who attended the meeting.

There is considerable concern among the Chinese that North Korea’s nuclear capacity has increased because US President Barack Obama has been concentrating on nuclear negotiations with Iran and avoiding talks with North Korea.

Since North Korea’s third nuclear test in Feb. 2013, China has joined international sanctions against North Korea and has listed the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as a top priority.

“[Until recently, the Chinese] had a pretty low opinion of what the North Koreans could do. I think they’re worried now,” David Albright, head of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, D.C., was quoted as saying by the Wall Street Journal.

By Seong Yeon-cheol, Beijing correspondent

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