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With South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s attendance at a Chinese military parade marking its victory over Japan in World War II sending shock waves through the diplomatic terrain in Northeast Asian, the big question is how this will affect the development of major pending diplomatic issues, such as trends in North Korea, the six-party talks about North Korean nuclear program, and trilateral cooperation between South Korea, China, and Japan.
The main variable in future diplomatic trends is the question of whether North Korea will launch a long-range rocket. There has been discussion of the possibility of North Korea testing a long-range rocket on the pretext of putting a satellite into orbit on Oct. 10, the 70th anniversary of the foundation of the Korean Workers’ Party.

Indeed, a video was posted on Uriminzokkiri, a website that North Korea uses to send propaganda to South Korea, in which the anchor said, “South Korea’s opposition parties, press, and experts urged the government not to cast a chill on inter-Korean relations, which are starting to thaw at last, simply because North Korea launches a satellite.”

Experts suspect that North Korea’s suggestive comments are intended to provide justification for the upcoming rocket launch. When North Korea decided during a meeting of the Political Bureau of the KWP Central Committee in February to hold a ceremony to mark the 70th anniversary of the party‘s establishment, it emphasized the successful launch of a rocket in Dec. 2012 and the development of cutting-edge weapons technology.

In May, North Korea also openly boasted of a successful underwater test of a submarine-launched ballistic rocket (SLBM).

There are concerns that, if North Korea launches a long-range rocket, it could have a negative effect on South Korea’s relations not only with North Korea but also with China. If the international community - backed by the US - denounces such a rocket launch as a violation of the UN Security Council resolution that forbids the North from launching anything that relies on ballistic rocket technology and slaps more sanctions on the North, inter-Korean relations are sure to lose the momentum created by the Aug. 25 agreement and return to a state of tensions.

This could also lead to renewed calls from the US and Japan to deploy THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) on the Korean Peninsula to defend against North Korean rockets. If South Korea is dragged into a discussion of THAAD, opposition from China could strain relations between the two countries.

In regard to this, particular attention is being paid to what China will do. “The US and China are the only countries that could stop the rocket launch,” said Yang Moo-jin, professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

There is a possibility that China will act more aggressively to manage the situation by sending a senior official to North Korea’s ceremony on October 10 to persuade North Korea not to launch a rocket while also sending the North a strong warning.

With the leaders of South Korea and China both interested in reopening the six-party talks soon, attention is shifting to talks between various countries that are starting this week.

On Sep. 7, Xiao Qian, China’s deputy representative for affairs on the Korean Peninsula and deputy envoy to the six-party talks, will be visiting South Korea for the first time since being appointed to the position this past June, while chief envoys to the talks for South Korea and the US are planning to hold talks this week in the US.

Another topic of interest is how the question of the North Korean issue will be addressed in two upcoming summits. Chinese President Xi Jinping will be meeting US President Barack Obama during a visit to the US at the end of this month, and President Park will do the same next month.

“Since China has always been the country calling for the resumption of the six-party talks, this by itself is no great accomplishment. The US is the country that needs to be persuaded to let the six-party talks move forward,” said Lee Su-hun, professor at Kyungnam University.

Another interesting question related to the trilateral summit among the leaders of South Korea, China, and Japan - which is thought to be the greatest achievement of Park’s visit to China - is whether Park and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will also hold a bilateral summit meeting for the first time since the two took office. The South Korean government is exploring the option of holding a bilateral summit meeting between Park and Abe in the framework of the trilateral summit.

But if Park is unable to persuade Japan to change its attitude on the issue of the comfort women who served as sex slaves for the imperial Japanese army, which Park has often mentioned as the key historical issue dividing the two countries, it is very likely that this would throw a wrench in plans to use the bilateral summit meeting to normalize their diplomatic relations.

By Kim Oi-hyun, staff reporter

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