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North Korea warned for the first time since the agreement was reached on Aug. 25 that the reunions of the divided families might not happen. North Korea appears to be implying that it could cancel the reunions if the international community and South Korea impose sanctions in response to a North Korean long-range rocket launch or nuclear test.

“The reunions of the divided family members and relatives have been placed in a situation that is as perilous as thin ice because of the rashly confrontational behavior of the South Korean government. There is a consensus at home and abroad that, if the South Korean government continues to make confrontational remarks as it is doing now, the reunions might not take place,” the spokesperson of North Korea’s Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland said in a statement released on the evening of Sep. 29.

The statement was made in response to South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s address before the UN General Assembly on the previous day. During the address, Park called on North Korea to stop developing nuclear weapons and launching long-range rockets.

The South Korean government expressed strong displeasure with the comments.

“It’s extremely regrettable that North Korea is unilaterally distorting and criticizing President Park’s speech before the UN and in particular that it is threatening that the reunions of the divided families are ‘in danger,’ even though the reunions are a humanitarian issue that was agreed upon in talks between high-level government officials. The reunions of the divided families and other humanitarian issues must not be ignored any longer for political or military reasons,” said Unification Ministry spokesperson Jeong Joon-hee during the regular press briefing on Sep. 30.

Given that North Korea has not yet called off the reunions, it appears that for now North Korea is playing the divided families card in order to put pressure on South Korea. At the same time, North Korea appears to be hinting that, if it goes ahead with a long-range rocket launch and nuclear test as it has suggested it might and if the international community and South Korea impose additional sanctions as a result, it could cancel the reunions.

“If a North Korean provocation results in international sanctions being imposed on the country, North Korea could respond by refusing to hold the reunions,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University.

The position adopted by the South Korean government is that the reunions must go ahead as planned even if North Korea commits a provocation. During the speech before the UN General Assembly, President Park said, “Humanitarian issues such as the reunions of the divided families should not be ignored any longer because of political or military concerns.”

Nevertheless, there is a strong possibility that North Korea will launch a rocket, South Korea will place sanctions on North Korea, and North Korea will call off the reunions of the divided families.

For reasons such as this, experts are calling for government talks between the two sides to be held before Oct. 10 as a form of “preventative diplomacy” to keep North Korea from carrying out a provocation. While the government is considering a variety of options, including this one, it is unclear whether government talks will actually take place.

The fact that deliberations for holding a soccer game between North and South Korean workers sometime in October are continuing amid all this is a small but hopeful sign.

On Sep. 30, seven representatives from South Korea’s Federation of Korean Trade Unions and the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions met with representatives from North Korea’s Vocational Alliance in Kaesong, North Korea, for a working-level discussion of the timing and location of the football game. If the “inter-Korean workers’ unification football match” is held, it will be the first time since 2007.

By Kim Ji-hoon, staff reporter

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