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in an image released on Oct. 4 by the Korean Central News Agency. (KCNA/Yonhap News)

Amid hints from North Korea about the launch of a long-range rocket to mark the seventieth anniversary of the foundation of the Workers’ Party, and a possible fourth nuclear test, the fifth-ranked official from the Communist Party of China will visit North Korea. The rocket launch, originally scheduled for the Workers’ Party Foundation Day on Oct. 10, could at least be deferred.

On Oct. 4, the Korean Central News Agency, North Korea’s state news agency, reported that Liu Yunshan, member of the Political Bureau Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, would visit North Korea to attend the celebration of the Worker Party‘s 70th Anniversary. Liu is currently the fifth-ranked member of the party’s Politburo Standing Committee. On July 27, 2013, China sent Vice President Li Yuanchao, a committee member of lower rank than Liu, to attend North Korea‘s celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Korean Armistice Agreement. This makes the upcoming visit a substantial upgrade.

It is significant that China is sending a senior official from the inner-Communist Party instead of a general representative of the Chinese state. Since the inauguration of President Xi Jinping, China has appeared to be revising its diplomatic stance toward North Korea from an intimate party-to-party partnership to a more formal diplomatic relationship. However, some view Liu’s upcoming visit as a gesture to resume the two countries’ former alliance. Lee Nam-ju, Professor of Chinese Studies at Sungkonghoe University, said that Liu is the “highest-level official China could possibly send right now,” adding that China-North Korea relations is “surely pivoting from hostility to friendlier circumstances.”

This diplomatic restoration initiated through the visit of a senior Chinese official at least diminishes the chances of North Korea’s rocket launch or any other strategic provocations. If North Korea launched a rocket during a visit from a top-ranking Chinese official, then China would likely lose a significant amount of diplomatic face. Thus, the confirmation of Liu‘s visit implies that North Korea will, for the meantime, postpone its rocket launch, which China has explicitly opposed. According to Cheong Seong-chang, Director of Unification Strategy Studies at the Sejong Institute, Liu’s North Korean visit wasn’t a one-way decision made by China, but the result of bilateral negotiations, during which it’s likely that North Korea expressed intentions to postpone its rocket launch until at least after Foundation Day.

During Vice President Li’s visit to North Korea, he met with leader Kim Jong-un for about seven to eight hours, so it’s likely that Liu will also hold a face-to-face meeting with Kim. It‘s also likely that Liu and Kim will agree upon a visit from Kim to China in a continuation of efforts to restore friendly relations.

Liu’s North Korean visit can be viewed as favorable to inter-Korean relations. According to Kim Chang-soo, Director of the Korea National Strategy Institute, the possibility of inter-Korean exchanges, such as a workers’ soccer match or reunions of divided families, is now highly possible. “The next stage would be a inter-governmental meeting” and other efforts that would continue the agreements made this past August 25. However, some voices (Prof. Lee Nam-ju) warned that if inter-Korean relations take a wrong turn or if unfavorable circumstances arise, North Korea could certainly proceed with its rocket launch and disrupt inter-Korean relations.

By Son Won-je and Kim Ji-hoon, staff reporters

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