Scholar: North Korea has produced enough nuclear material for 10-16 weapons

Posted on : 2015-10-09 17:33 KST Modified on : 2015-10-09 17:33 KST
New research by David Albright appears to have reprocessed all of the remaining plutonium in its five-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon for weapons use
 from the North Korea affairs website 38 North on Sep. 15. (Yonhap News)
from the North Korea affairs website 38 North on Sep. 15. (Yonhap News)

 North Korea had produced enough nuclear material by late 2014 to produce a total of ten to sixteen weapons if fully weaponized, a scholar argues.

 The figure was given in a recent paper titled “North Korean Plutonium and Weapon-Grade Uranium Inventories” by David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) and one of the leading authorities on North Korean nuclear weapons.

 Based on an analysis of announcements by North Korea and satellite images, Albright concluded that the North appears to have reprocessed all of the remaining plutonium in its five-megawatt reactor at Yongbyon for weapons use since the last six-party talks in late 2008. If true, this would mean it could produce 38 to 40 kg of weapons-grade plutonium, leaving an estimated 30 to 34 kg after the 6 to 8 kg used for nuclear tests in 2009 and 2013, he said.

 Albright also estimated that North Korea had acquired around 100 kg of weapons-grade enriched uranium -- over 90% of it the enriched uranium-235 isotope -- from use of its centrifuge facilities at Yongbyon. Based on the number of centrifuges imported, he concluded that another, slightly larger facility may exist elsewhere, in which case operation of both facilities could have produced some 240 kg of weapons-grade enriched uranium.

 From his analysis, Albright argued that North Korea could produce anywhere from 15 to 22 weapons with the weapons-grade plutonium and uranium it possesses. He also estimated that 30% of the material would be unusable for weapons due to normal losses during the storage process or underground stockpiling for nuclear tests. Full weaponization of all nuclear materials the country has produced would therefore produce ten to sixteen actual weapons, he concluded.

 Albright also expressed concerns that more weapons could be produced if North Korea decides to use its light-water reactor facilities to produce weapons-grade plutonium. A light-water reactor plant currently under construction at Yongbyon remained uncompleted as of summer 2015.

 By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

 Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]