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2014 militaries in total troop numbers and as % of population

A number of scholars both inside South Korea and in other countries have concluded that the North Korean army is composed of around 700,000 soldiers. This is 500,000 fewer than the South Korean government’s official estimate of 1.2 million soldiers that appeared in a 2014 white paper by the Ministry of National Defense.

This is a sign that the debate among academics about the accuracy of the government’s estimates of the size of the North Korean military may be reigniting. The government has been criticized for using inflated estimates to exaggerate North Korea’s military threat.

“It can be inferred that the approximate size of the North Korean regular army is between 500,000 on the low side and 750,000 on the high side,” said Sogang University Professor Jeong Yeong-cheol in a report recently commissioned by the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee. The report was titled “Population Statistics and Social Change in North Korea: Changes in the Education System and a New Estimate of the Size of the Army.”

Satoru Miyamoto, a professor at Japan’s Seigakuin University, has also estimated the strength of the Korean People’s Army - as North Korea’s military is called - at 702,372. Satoru made the estimate in a paper titled “The Military Organization and Strength of the Korean People’s Army,” which he presented at the World Conference on North Korean Studies, held in Seoul this past October.

The basis for the estimates by the two professors is 1993 and 2008 census data for North Korea, which is relatively reliable since it was obtained with the help of the UN Population Fund (UNFPA). The 2008 census in particular was conducted according to international standards, involving the direct participation of the UNFPA and assistance from the Inter-Korean Cooperation Fund.

Jeong stumbled upon a “statistical error” of 700,000 people between the population by region and the population by age in the census results for 1993 and 2008. In 1993, there were 700,000 more people in the population by region, and in 2008 there were 700,000 more in the population by age.

In the 2008 statistics in particular, most of this difference is found in males between 15 and 29 years old - which overlaps with the age when North Koreans do their military service.

Drawing upon a number of features in the 2008 census figures - including the difference between the age and regional statistics, the number of employed aged 16 years and above, age brackets, and gender ratio - Jeong was able to estimate the size of North Korea’s military.

Miyamoto also cited as evidence a 1999 North Korean article explaining the difference of 700,000 between the population by age and the population by region in the 1993 census as having been caused by leaving out soldiers.

“It’s not appropriate for us to comment on individual research papers. However, the 1.2 million found in the Ministry of National Defense’s white paper was accurately calculated by combining various kinds of intelligence,” said an official with the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff.

But the South Korean government refuses to make public the evidence for its estimate of 1.2 million soldiers, making it impossible to verify the claim. This stands in sharp contrast to the government’s practice of providing standards and methodology for its yearly estimate of the size of the North Korean economy.

The government’s estimate of 1.2 million North Korean soldiers is implausible, many say, since it would constitute 5% of North Korea’s entire population. There are just 630,000 soldiers in the South Korean military, representing 1.3% of the population.

Even in Israel - the country with the highest percentage of people in arms - the army only amounts to 2.2% of the total population. Even an estimate of 700,000 would mean that North Korea’s soldiers account for 3% of the population.

In 2012, Masahiko Nakagawa, an analyst at the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE), affiliated with the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), used Chinese documents to argue that the North Korean army at the point of greatest mobilization - at the ceasefire that ended the Korean War - accounted for 5.3% of the total population. Military experts point out that the Ministry of National Defense’s estimate is completely unrealistic, since it implies that North Korea constantly maintains its army at Korean War levels, even during peacetime.

Furthermore, North Korean researchers believe that the population loss caused by the terrible famine that struck North Korea between 1995 and 1997 (known as the “Arduous March”) would have begun to directly affect the size of the North Korean military between 2007 and the present day. This implies that the North Korean military would have shrunk during this period.

By Lee Je-hun, staff reporter

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