[2016 Prospects 2] “As uncertain as before” in Northeast Asia

Posted on : 2016-01-06 11:29 KST Modified on : 2016-01-06 11:29 KST
Major questions for the coming year are US-China relations and the results of North Korea’s Worker’s Party Congress
A report titled “The Outlook for 2016
A report titled “The Outlook for 2016

As the “severed link” in the Northeast Asian network, North Korea is an important factor in coming trends for the region. A report titled “The Outlook for 2016,” by the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS), a subsidiary of the National Intelligence Service, pointed out seven major items to consider in regard to the outlook for North Korea in the year to come: Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s address; reorganization of party and government institutions and changes in the structure of power; whether there will be a reinterpretation of the policy of parallel development of nuclear weapons and the economy and the announcement of new economic policies; whether there will be a fourth nuclear test and further tests of long-range missiles; whether there will be a return to six-party talks and progress in denuclearization; whether there will be a summit with China and, if so, when they will take place; and whether there will be changes in strategies toward South Korea and the United States. About the 7th Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, scheduled for early May, the INSS indicated that the congress will constitute both a proclamation of “the full-fledged opening of the era of Kim Jong-un” and “the starting point of a crisis.”

The Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) saw little hope for a resumption of the six-party talks, and, going against the general consensus, said in its report on the outlook for 2016, “The probability that North Korea will go ahead with a fourth nuclear test this year is not high,” and, “It is more likely this year that there will be hints of a chance to restart the six-party talks.”

The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security (IFANS) of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy saw the outlook for international affairs this year to be “as uncertain as before.” Though there may be short-term tensions between the United States and China over the South China Sea, there is a high probability that cooperation between China and the U.S. will be strengthened, at least temporarily. On the other hand, the IFANS predicted that fluidity and uncertainty in international relations will increase as the U.S. and China vie for hegemony in Eurasia, the Middle East, and the Asia-Pacific region.

The Asan Institute for Policy Studies (AIPS) says that the keyword for this year’s international outlook is “the new normal.” This means that slower economic growth will be the usual state of affairs worldwide, with stagnation in all fields, widespread disorder and confusion, and lack of vision for the future. Ten major issues are given as grounds for this pessimistic view: routine cooperation and discord in Northeast Asia; China’s confronting the “developing nation trap” and xinchangtai (the Chinese rendering of “new normal”); a worsening of North Korea’s dilemma over its policy of parallel development of nuclear weapons and the economy; the U.S. presidential election and the direction international affairs will take in its wake; the new normal in the competition between the U.S. and China - China’s policy of “One Belt, One Road” and the U.S. conception of the “Indo-Pacific”; perpetual stalemate, extreme lack of leadership, and widespread disorder in the Middle East; cracks showing in the European Union’s integration; the post-Trans-Pacific Partnership; the new regime to regulate climate change; and cyber-security, with low- and mid-level cyberwarfare becoming common.

By Lee Je-hun, staff reporter

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