hankyoreh

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un gives his New Year’s address

Will North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visit China this year to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping? In predicting the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula in 2016, this is a question that cannot be ignored - indeed, it is the most important of all.

Once again this year, a large number of important political events are planned in the countries located on or near the Korean Peninsula. South Korea will have its parliamentary elections in April. North Korea will have the first congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea in 36 years in early May. The US will have its presidential election on Nov. 9. Japan will have an election for the House of Councillors around July - important, since it may determine whether Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe can push through amendments to Japan’s constitution. All of these are factors that will affect the state of affairs in Northeast Asia.

But there is one factor that deserves even more attention than all of the scheduled political events.

“The question of whether Kim will visit China, which is to say the question of whether a summit will take place between North Korea and China, is virtually the only factor that will determine the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula this year,” a former senior official who is well-versed in North Korea’s political activities and in Sino-North Korean relations told the Hankyoreh on Jan. 3.

“Depending on whether Kim visits China or not, not only Sino-North Korean relations but also inter-Korean relations, the issue of North Korea’s nuclear program, and efforts to resume the six-party talks could all play out quite differently,” he said.

“It’s possible that Kim might visit China around the Party congress. The timing could depend upon what approach is taken for the congress,” said one senior South Korean government official who is knowledgeable about Sino-North Korean affairs.

If Kim does end up visiting China, it is likely to happen before the Party congress, many think.

“Generally speaking, the key of the Party congress is making an overall business assessment and offering a vision for new economic policies,” said a former senior official. “In order to provide a meaningful vision, Kim Jong-un will need to improve relations with China in order to convince China to engage in large-scale economic cooperation projects before the congress.”

“Given North Korea’s needs, Kim is in a situation where he needs to go to China. For Kim, it would be better to go before the Party congress, but we’ll have to keep an eye on North Korea’s relations with China,” said Jeong Se-hyun, permanent director of the Korea Peace Forum and former South Korean Minister of Unification.

“In order to develop the economy and improve the quality of life in North Korea, we need a peaceful and stable diplomatic environment,” Kim told Liu Yunshan, a member of the Political Bureau Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China, during a meeting on Oct. 9, 2015. Liu was in North Korea to attend a ceremony marking the 70th anniversary of the establishment of the Korean Workers’ Party.

While Liu’s visit to North Korea and meeting with Kim had set Sino-North Korean relations on the right track, this progress was disrupted when North Korea’s Moranbong Band abruptly returned to Pyongyang just before a concert in Beijing on Dec. 12, 2015. This incident, some think, has decreased the chances of Kim visiting China.

“This year, Kim Jong-un will not be visiting China, and Xi Jinping will not be visiting North Korea,” said Cha Du-hyeon, foreign policy aide for the governor of Gyeonggi Province. Cha made the remarks during a presentation in which he made predictions about the state of international affairs in 2016 at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies on Dec. 22.

But a different view was expressed by Park Byeong-gwang, head of Northeast Asian research at the Institute for National Security Strategy (INSS). With the caveat that “predicting the future means reading directions and trends,” Park said, “China believes that its current policy of moving closer to South Korea and keeping its distance from North Korea is damaging its relations with North Korea and causing problems on the Korean Peninsula. In the future, China believes that it needs to move toward a policy that balances North and South Korea.”

Park thinks that the chances of Kim visiting China and holding a summit with Xi are more likely this year than in 2015.

While there are conflicting views about the likelihood of Kim visiting China, there is one point about which experts see eye to eye. This is the fact that, if Kim is to visit China, he must improve his attitude about the nuclear issue during the summit with Xi.

In their projections for 2016, the Korea National Diplomatic Academy and the Institute for National Security Strategy said that the question of whether North Korea would change its attitude about nuclear weapons would be a major consideration for China in holding a summit.

“For North Korea and China to hold a summit would mean a stabilization of the North Korean nuclear issue and an increased likelihood of the six-party talks being held,” said a former senior official.

If Kim visits China, he will offer Xi a present of sorts related to the nuclear issue, and Xi will use this to build up momentum to restart the six-party talks, which have been on hold for more than seven years, the official predicted.

If the summit is held, North Korea will gain more economic cooperation and aid from China, and this could breathe new life into the “North Korean-Style Economic Management Methods,” also called the May 30 Measures, which are regarded as Kim Jong-un’s version of reform and liberalization.

In addition, a summit could stimulate economic cooperation in the border region between North Korea and China by developing links between the cooperative economic zones in China’s three provinces in the northeast border region and economic development zones in North Korea. This would coincide with the security-based vision that Xi has espoused in the One Belt, One Road initiative, which seeks stability in border regions through economic development of the frontier.

■ If Kim’s visit to China falls through. . .

If Kim is unable to visit China and if the Party congress is not a success, it is likely to have no small negative effect on the state of affairs on the Korean Peninsula, experts expect. They think that this might force North Korea to adopt a harsher policy toward the South and to consider the option of testing a nuclear weapon or launching a long-range missile, in order to externalize the crisis and find a way out of the situation.

The general view among experts is that, if Kim’s visit to China comes off, it will be quite different in style from previous visits by [Kim’s father and former North Korean leader] Kim Jong-il.

“Apparently, when Kim Jong-un was looking into visiting Russia in May 2015, there were deliberations about him flying there,” said a senior [South Korean] government official. “It’s very likely that he would fly in an airplane, unlike his father, who always rode in his own train.”

Another question is whether Kim will be accompanied on the trip by his wife, Ri Sol-ju. If he is, “first lady diplomacy” between Ri and Xi’s wife Peng Liyuan could create quite a stir.

Another item of interest is how Kim Jong-un would be entertained by the Chinese leadership. In the past, the custom was to organize a meeting of the senior leadership of the two communist parties - which would mean, for China, the members of the Political Bureau Standing Committee, including Xi and State Council Premier Li Keqiang. The general consensus among experts, however, is that this custom is unlikely to be maintained for a visit by Kim Jong-un.

By Lee Je-hun, staff reporter

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