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National Intelligence Service Director Lee Byung-ho (far left)

News that there had been an “earthquake” in North Korea around 10 am on Jan. 6 reached South Korea from Europe, China, and the US after 10:30 am. It was about half an hour later that the South Korean government organized a meeting to plan a response and that the Blue House took action to ascertain the situation.

Furthermore, it was only after the news channels started reporting the possibility of a nuclear test that South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) launched a detailed analysis and the Ministry of National Defense set up a crisis management taskforce.

Caught off balance, the South Korean government did not appear to accept that the nuclear test had actually happened until North Korea announced that it would be making a special announcement at noon, local time.

South Korea’s government and military were taken by complete surprise. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had already mentioned a “hydrogen bomb” in North Korea’s state-run newspaper the Rodong Sinmun on Dec. 10. “We were able to become a strong nuclear power that can trigger the massive blast of a hydrogen bomb,” Kim had said, but the South Korean government disregarded the remark.

“We’re monitoring and tracking North Korea’s nuclear activity, but we don’t have any intelligence to suggest that North Korea has developed a hydrogen bomb,” a senior intelligence official in the government said.

“North Korea hasn’t even managed to miniaturize a nuclear warhead. The language is probably rhetorical,” the official added.

The US had been in the dark just as much as South Korea. In the regular press briefing, a White House spokesperson said there was considerable doubt about North Korea’s claim that it had developed a hydrogen bomb, given the intelligence on hand.

Without addressing the veracity of North Korea’s hydrogen bomb claims, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Hua Chunying obliquely criticized the test, calling on North Korea to take action that will help with easing tensions in the region.

While the South Korean government was downplaying the importance of Kim’s hydrogen bomb comments and demonstrating the weaknesses in its intelligence assessment capabilities, North Korea was proceeding with preparations for the nuclear test.

According to the government statement that North Korea released on Jan. 6, Kim gave the orders to proceed with the test on Dec. 15, five days after making the remarks about the hydrogen bomb, and signed the final command on Jan. 3.

On Jan. 5 - two days after the go-ahead was given and the day before the test took place - South Korean President Park Geun-hye presided over a cabinet meeting and urged her ministers to work toward normalizing inter-Korean relations, noting that “North Korea has recently been indicating its willingness to implement the Aug. 25 agreement [to ease military tensions].” The Blue House had been completely blind to signs of the nuclear test, too.

A more serious blunder was the government’s failure to notice hints of a nuclear test after North Korea’s Moranbong Band abruptly cancelled its Beijing concert on Dec. 12 of last year. The prevailing view is that Kim’s remarks about the hydrogen bomb had a considerable effect on the cancellation of the concert.

While North Korea had given advance notice of its first three nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, and 2013 through statements by its Ministry of Foreign Affairs or National Defense Commission, this time it gave no warning about the test, demonstrating the ineptitude of South Korea’s military and intelligence authorities.

“There were none of the usual preliminary indications before this test. There were no guards posted around the nuclear test site, and there was no announcement beforehand,” said Rep. Lee Cheol-woo, a Saenuri Party lawmaker on the National Assembly’s Defense Committee, who was briefed by the NIS on Wednesday.

The South Korean military expressed confidence during the parliamentary audit in Sep. 2015 that it could predict a north Korean nuclear test at least one month in advance.

The US government was also reportedly taken by surprise by North Korea’s sudden nuclear test. Before the third nuclear test, North Korea gave the US 12 hours of advance notice, but this time it did not provide a single hint, a diplomatic source said.

If North Korea’s claim that it tested a hydrogen bomb proves true, it will constitute evidence that the US policy of “strategic patience” toward North Korea, which was supposed to lead the North to abandon its nuclear program, has failed. This would put the US in an even more awkward position.

The Chinese government did not receive any preliminary notification of the test from North Korea, either.

“We did not have any prior knowledge of North Korea’s miniaturized hydrogen bomb test,” Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Hua Chunying said during the regular briefing on Wednesday.

By Kim Jin-cheol, staff reporter, and Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]