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Darkness engulfs the empty Inter-Korean Transit Office in Paju

One of the standout aspects of the Park Geun-hye administration’s response to North Korea’s recent fourth nuclear test and rocket launch has been the unchallenged role of the Blue House. After previous moves to resume loudspeaker broadcasts, the proposal of “five-party talks” to discuss North Korea’s nuclear program without including North Korea, and references to the deployment of a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system on the Korean Peninsula, the recent full-scale shutdown of the Kaesong Industrial Complex has also proven to be based on an arbitrary Blue House decision. Shrugged off during the decision process were calls from the Ministry of Unification - the presiding agency for the complex - for only a temporary shutdown, with only ineffectual gestures of “resistance” from Minister Hong Yong-pyo during the administration’s debate.

According to sources, during the Blue House and administration’s Feb. 7 discussion of potential responses to the North Korean rocket launch, the ministry opposed a full-scale shutdown of the complex and proposed a “temporary” or “provisional” shutdown instead.

“My understanding is that Hong proposed shutting the Kaesong complex down only temporarily if we did it at all,” said one administration source.

Another source familiar with the administration’s discussion process said the ministry “apparently did insist on only a provisional shutdown of the Kaesong complex, but wasn’t in a position to go against the set procedure.”

A provisional shutdown would have been very different from the de facto closure resulting from the administration’s decision, since it would only have entailed restrictions on staff access without the removal of equipment or finished products.

While some within the Blue House had advocated a full-scale closure of the complex in the wake of North Korea’s fourth nuclear test last month, the Ministry of Unification continued to officially maintain that the complex was “not a means of punishment” and that “no closure is currently being considered.”

“The administration held discussions on possible means of punishing North Korea after the fourth nuclear test, and the Ministry of Unification was apparently opposed to calls from the Blue House and other ministries for a possible suspension of operations at the Kaesong complex,” said another source acquainted with the administration discussion process.

“The ministry’s position was that if we were going to consider suspending the complex’s operations, we should do it carefully and weigh things like the [anticipated] sanctions resolution by the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and activities by countries like the US, Japan, China, and Russia to punish North Korea,” the source added.

Indeed, the argument that a shutdown should only be considered after the rest of the international community took action was echoed by comments in a Jan. 22 presidential briefing by Hong and a ministry spokesperson speaking in a regular briefing.

“The reason the Kaesong complex has remained in operation to date is because it has not been regarded as conflicting with sanctions against North Korea,” explained a senior ministry official the same day.

The Blue House “offensive” on the issue appears to have started on Feb. 8 and 9. Indeed, a possible shutdown was reportedly discussed in the Blue House prior to Park’s Feb. 9 telephone conversation with the leaders of the US and Japan, in which she discussed “beefing up bilateral measures outside the UNSC” to punish the North.

“The President ratified a decision made during a Feb. 10 National Security Council (NSC) meeting presided over by [Blue House National Security Director] Kim Kwan-jin, but it appears to have been a procedure that had already been set in stone,” said an administration source.

Speaking at a Feb. 7 NSC meeting, Park expressed the “need for the UNSC to enact forceful measures.” Minister of National Defense Han Min-koo, who attended the meeting, stated in an emergency report to the National Assembly National Defense Committee that he had “heard nothing from the National Security Council about a closure of the Kaesong Industrial Complex” - suggesting the final decision on a full-scale suspension had not been made as of the time of the Feb. 7 NSC meeting.

Some are now suggesting Park’s decision to shut down the complex reflected a mix of perceptions that a collapse of the Pyongyang regime is imminent and domestic political considerations - especially the upcoming parliamentary elections in April. Kim Jong-dae, a former administrative officer in the Blue House national defense aide’s office and policy aide to the Minister of National Defense who currently heads the Justice Party’s planning team for national defense reform, said Park “seems to have already begun ‘betting big’ on a North Korea collapse.”

“It’s a very unrealistic view,” Kim added.

“The North Korean nuclear issue is like a marathon, and Park is acting like it’s a 100-meter race. [Her behavior] is incomprehensible unless it’s about the parliamentary elections in April.”

By Kim Jin-cheol and Lee Je-hun, staff reporters

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