hankyoreh

Wang Yi

With the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in its last stages of negotiation on a resolution sanctioning North Korea for its recent fourth nuclear test and rocket launch, China made a strategic play this week to influence the post-sanctions situation - and the upcoming US presidential election in November. The move was an initiative by Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who announced his proposal on Feb. 17 after a press conference with Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop.

“As chair country for the six-party talks [on the nuclear issue], China proposes talks toward both achieving denuclearization [of the Korean Peninsula] and replacing the [existing North Korea-US] armistice agreement with a peace treaty,” Wang declared.

In basic terms, Wang’s proposal differs little from Beijing’s standard position to date on Korean Peninsula issues. The important aspect is the timing, with Beijing making its first formal calls for a two-track denuclearization and peace treaty negotiation approach after North Korea‘s fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6. The proposal, Wang said, was intended to “find a way back to dialogue quickly.” He also argued that the approach would “also help in achieving a fundamental solution to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.”

“He is saying that because the North Korean nuclear issue is a product of the Cold War system on the Korean Peninsula, you can’t resolve it without also offering ideas for overcoming that Cold War system,” said Inje University professor Kim Yeon-chul of Wang’s proposal.

“He’s pleading for a revival of the basic spirit of the six-party talks,” Kim concluded.

In terms of its formal logic, Wang’s proposal occupies a middle ground between the official South Korean and US positions on one side and North Korea’s on the other. So far, the two sides have been marching in parallel lines, with Seoul and Washington demanding that North Korea prove a sincere intent to denuclearize before any dialogue or negotiation and Pyongyang insisting, as a Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson’s statement from Dec. 3, 2015, put it, on “a peace treaty first, denuclearization discussions later.” In reality, Beijing’s position is tipped slightly more toward Pyongyang; neither Seoul nor Washington has mentioned the possibility of discussing normalization of relations with North Korea or a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula lately. This suggests China has deemed it necessary to listen more to North Korea if the aim is to prevent any further nuclear tests and rocket launches and get the six-party talks started again.

So far, Seoul has been dismissive of Wang’s proposal. Speaking at a regular briefing on Feb. 18, Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Cho Joon-hyuk said the “priority must be on North Korea stopping its provocations and showing a sincere commitment to denuclearize.” The US has yet to give any official response - but it is worth noting that it has not dismissed the proposal out of hand.

“The prospects of Washington continuing to push ahead with sanctions against North Korea are unrealistic,” said a South Korean government source with experience in the six-party talks.

“There’s a chance the US will start taking the peace treaty issue seriously once time passes. The danger for the South Korean government is that it’s going to end up isolated by insisting on going all in’ on sanctions and pressure against the North,” the source added.

For its part, the Chinese government doesn’t appear to be expecting an immediate positive response from South Korea or the US. Wang‘s remarks about “hoping for concrete discussions at a suitable time” can be read as suggesting that no answer is needed right away. Instead, former South Korean Unification Minister and current Korea Peace Forum permanent representative Jeong Se-hyun, sees the move as a medium- to long-term gesture assuming that the UNSC resolution and a Workers’ Party of Korea Congress in early May will be followed by a North Korea-China summit and the eventual election of Hillary Clinton as US President.

Clinton, who is considered the front-runner in the US presidential race, previously shared ideas for the future of North Korea-US relations in an address to the Asia Society on Feb. 13, 2009, during her time as Secretary of State.

“If North Korea is genuinely prepared to completely and verifiably eliminate their nuclear weapons program, the Obama administration will be willing to normalize bilateral relations, replace the peninsula‘s long-standing armistice agreements with a permanent peace treaty and assist in meeting the energy and other economic needs of the North Korean people,” she said at the time.

It’s a message Clinton later reiterated at the ASEAN Regional Forum that July, just after North Korea’s third nuclear test. In an autobiography titled “Hard Choices” that she published on the eve of her presidential bid in 2014, Clinton recalled the “invitation” she extended to Pyongyang with her 2009 vision.

“[A]s with Iran, another regime with nuclear ambitions, we started off with the offer of engagement,” she wrote.

From Beijing’s standpoint, a possible approach may be hold a summit with North Korea so that President Xi Jinping can use the promise of increased economic cooperation to coax a promise of a moratorium on nuclear testing and rocket launches, swift action to freeze the nuclear program, and a return to the six-party talks from leader Kim Jong-un. From there, it would then go on to hold discussions with the Obama administration and attempt to make significant progress in denuclearization and peace treaty talks by the time the next US administration - presumably under Clinton - is sworn into office.

“What Wang Yi proposed was that all parties follow the terms of the September 19 Joint Statement,” said a former senior South Korean government official familiar with the six-party talks situation, referring to an agreement reached at the talks in 2005.

“The September 19 Joint Statement accords with everyone‘s interests: North Korea abandoning its nuclear weapons and development program, normalizing North Korea-US relations, and establishing a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula,” the former official continued. “We need a more forward-thinking approach from the Park administration.”

By Lee Je-hun, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]