hankyoreh

Leon Sigal

Leon Sigal is director of the Northeast Asia Cooperative Security Project at the Social Science Research Council in New York. He has written extensively on nuclear diplomacy with North Korea. He recently did an email interview with the Hankyoreh’s Washington correspondent about the Park Geun-hye administrations unification and foreign policies at the three-year mark of its time in power.

Hankyoreh (Hani): President Park Geun-hye recently shut down the Kaesong Industrial Complex and decided to deploy THAAD missile defense in response to North Korea’s nuclear test and long-range rocket launch. In addition, she implied in a recent address to parliament that if North Korea refuses to give up its nuclear weapons, South Korea will keep pushing it until the regime collapses. What do you think about Park’s hard-line response to North Korea’s recent actions?

Sigal: Now is the time for serious reconsideration of policy, not flights of fancy. Seeking the collapse of the regime is utterly unrealistic. Far from encouraging the North to stop arming, it only reinforces the North’s drive to make more and better nuclear weapons and missiles.

Hani: China is objecting strongly to South Korea and the US’s plan for the THAAD deployment on the Korean peninsula. The rifts between the US and China, China and South Korea appear to be widening. Some South Koreans are concerned that the THAAD might spur an arms race in Northeast Asia. What kind of impact do you think this will have on Northeast Asia’s peace and stability? Do you think it may cause a security dilemma in this region?

Sigal: THAAD has very limited anti-missile capability and can easily be offset by China‘s adding a few more missiles without triggering an arms race. China’s real concern is the tightening of the U.S. alliances in Asia, which is necessitated by missile defense.

Hani: As you know, the ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy of the Obama administration has two sides, one is cooperation with China and the other is blocking China’s rise. One of the most prominent characteristics of Pivot to Asia is military cooperation among three countries, US. Japan, South Korea. Could you tell me what is the problem of trilateral military cooperation?

Sigal: The pivot has no such purpose. It is not the policy of the Obama administration to block the rise of China, but to reassure its allies as China’s military capabilities increase. It continues to pursue areas of cooperation, including on North Korea policy. A serious US-China dialogue about security issues would be useful head off conflict.

Hani: Can you talk a bit more about possible problems with the US-led Missile defense system.

Sigal: Missile defense cannot operate without greatly intensified cooperation among the allies. That is a lot less worrisome than renewed talk of nuclear arming in Seoul and Tokyo.

Hani: After three years in power, inter-Korean relations have only gotten worse under Park. Also, Obama administration has reiterated ‘strategic patience’ toward North Korea. What do you think about this? What has made two administrations push the ineffective policies?

Sigal: The only realistic way to stop North Korean arming is to negotiate and that involves addressing North Korea’s security concerns, not insisting on preconditions for talks. It would entail a gradual peace process and normalization of economic relations in parallel with denuclearization and missile constraints. Sustained negotiations may not succeed, but failing to try them is inexcusable. Similarly, the only realistic way for Seoul to bring about desired change in the North, however gradually, is to sustain economic, cultural and political engagement. President Park has unfortunately been of two minds about that, with unfortunate results. The failure is due to politics in both capitals where wishful thinking has prevailed over realism.

Hani: South Korea is compared to a shrimp between two whales (US and China). On the side of South Korea, what position it should take between U.S and China?

Sigal: It has been the policy of all recent governments in Seoul to remain a firm ally of the United States while seeking to engage with and accommodate China where possible. That is a sound approach to South Korean security.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]