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Overseas restaurants operated by North Korea

The South Korean government’s abrupt announcement of the defection of 13 employees from an overseas North Korean restaurant was intended to give the ruling party an advantage in the parliamentary elections scheduled for Apr. 13, analysts say. President Park Geun-hye’s aggressive emphasis on security issues in a variety of public events, meetings and speeches before the elections lends weight to this suspicion.

But these efforts are likely to have only a limited effect on the elections, many experts believe. Since 2000, the North Korea issue has lost some of its political sensitivity, and the announcement about the defection smacks more of government self-promotion than of the North Korean threat.

North Korea and the security issue have traditionally been areas that work in the favor of South Korea’s conservatives. Such issues make it possible for the government and the conservatives to claim that North Korea is endangering the national security and to ask the public for its help.

Recently, President Park has also apparently been trying to play up security issues related to North Korea. On Mar. 24, she ordered heightened alertness around the country in response to a series of North Korean threats about a military provocation.

On the following day, Park called for “national unity” to help overcome the crisis while attending an event marking the first West Sea Defense Day. “Foolhardy provocations will only lead the North Korean regime to its own destruction,” Park said at the event.

Park continued to drum up security concerns by calling for aggressive sanctions against North Korea during back-to-back summits with the leaders of the US, Japan and China on Mar. 31, while she was in Washington, D.C. to attend the Nuclear Security Summit.

The announcement about the group defection was also reportedly ordered to showcase the effectiveness of the South Korean government’s independent sanctions against North Korea.

Through the 1990s, North Korea and security issues had some effect on drawing out the conservative vote during the elections, but more recently they have often had the opposite effect.

Turnout for conservative parties is believed to have been boosted by a number of such incidents, including the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 before the 1987 presidential election, allegations by the Agency for National Security Planning that there was a South Korean branch of the Korean Workers’ Party before the 1992 presidential election, and a show of force by North Korea in Panmunjeom immediately before the parliamentary elections in 1996.

But since the 2000s, issues related to North Korea have not played a major role in shaping election results. When the administration of Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) announced that it would be holding an inter-Korean summit just three days before the 2000 parliamentary elections, it only provoked disgust among voters and led to a victory by the Grand National Party (the predecessor of today’s Saenuri Party), which was the political opposition at the time.

When the South Korean Cheonan warship was sunk before the 2010 local elections, this was expected to consolidate the conservative vote, but the elections ended in victory for the Democratic Party (today’s Minjoo Party of Korea), which ran under the slogan, “will it be peace or war?”

“This group defection could distract voters from the opposition parties’ calls for voters to use this election to express their discontent with the administration. Still, it will probably have a limited effect on the election,” said Yoon Hee-woong, director of Opinion Live‘s public opinion analysis center.

Neither the ruling party not the opposition parties are trying to turn the defection into an election issue. Opposition parties are concerned about a backlash from the North, while the ruling party is worried about a backlash from voters.

As of Apr. 10, three days after the government announcement, the Saenuri Party had not mentioned it in any official statements. The Minjoo Party of Korea and the People’s Party also appear hesitant to politicize the issue.

By Choi Hye-jung, staff reporter

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