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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is cheered after observing the launch of a ballistic missile from a submarine in the East Sea

At 6:30 pm on Apr. 23, North Korea fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the East Sea, northeast of Sinpo in North Hamgyong Province.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that the missile only traveled 30km, far short of the minimum 300km range of an SLBM, while the US Strategic Command said the missile posed no threat to the continental US. In contrast, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un claimed during “field guidance” on Apr. 24 that the missile launch was a “great success.”

The governments of the US and South Korea are taking steps to deliberate with the international community about responding to the launch, claiming that it was a violation of UN Security Council resolutions.

Military tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rising rapidly ahead of the 7th Congress of the Korean Workers’ Party, which is scheduled to take place in North Korea on May 7. Some experts still expect that North Korea will push ahead with a fifth nuclear weapons test around the time of the congress.

“The test was intended to demonstrate the stability of the cold launch system [a way for a missile to ignite and begin flight after an underwater launch] for ballistic missiles at the maximum launch depth and to demonstrate the accuracy of the operation of the warhead’s nuclear detonator at the set altitude [. . .] using a newly developed high-output solid fuel engine. We adequately met the required conditions in all technical respects,” North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency reported on Apr. 24.

North Korea claims that it achieved the goals it set for the launch. This is the fourth time that North Korea has conducted an SLBM test, following previous tests in May, November and December of last year.

Considering that North Korea’s SLBM only flew for 150 meters during the first test launch in May 2015, this can be seen as considerable technological progress.

On Apr. 24, South Korea’s Defense Ministry concluded that North Korea had made some technological progress in its underwater launch ability. This is why the South Korean and American militaries did not officially describe North Korea’s SLBM test as a failure, even as they discounted the outcome.

“We estimate that it will take North Korea three or four years to field an operable SLBM, though this could conceivably happen sooner if they concentrate all of their resources toward this end,” the Ministry said.　

Apr. 23. The Apr. 24 edition of the Rodong Sinmun newspaper featured coverage of the launch on pages 1-2 and 26 color photos. (KCNA/Yonhap News)

Even after the UN Security Council adopted Resolution No. 2270, North Korea has launched a series of mid-range ballistic missiles, including a Nodong missile on Mar. 18, a Musudan missile on Apr. 15 and the SLBM on Apr. 23.

There are three ways of looking at this. First, these can be seen as test launches designed to improve North Korea’s military technology and capability in accordance with Kim Jong-un’s directive to keep strengthening the North’s nuclear strike options.

Second, they back up the claim that North Korea is a military power. In this sense, they function as domestic propaganda aimed at setting the mood for the KWP Congress, in line with Kim Jong-un’s remarks that “This enables us to plunge our dagger of destruction into the backs of the South Korean puppet regime and the American imperialists whenever we so choose.”

Third, the tests also serve as a show of force aimed at the outside world, emphasizing that North Korea will not bow to the pressure of the tough sanctions imposed by the international community.　

The South Korean government believes that the North could test a nuclear weapon whenever Kim Jong-un gives the order. But government sources say that there are no indications that the North is removing equipment and workers from its nuclear test site at Punggye Village, which would imply that a nuclear test is imminent.

Furthermore, numerous experts both in South Korea and overseas believe that it is unlikely that North Korea will test another nuclear weapon. One reason offered for this prediction is that North Korea would gain little politically either at home or abroad by carrying out another nuclear test just three months after its fourth nuclear test and rocket launch in January and February. Another reason is that the North would have little time to prepare a test that would be meaningfully different in terms of military technology from its fourth test.　

The US State Department said that test launches using ballistic missile technology are a clear violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions, while the South Korean government issued a statement by the spokesperson of its Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Apr. 24 in which it promised to “take the necessary measures at the UN Security Council through close consultation with major countries while also further increasing efforts to put sanctions and pressure on North Korea.”

On Sunday, the UN Security Council issued a press statement condemning the launch, saying, “The members of the Security Council strongly condemned the firing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile by the Democratic People‘s Republic of Korea.”

By Lee Je-hun, staff reporter and Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]