North Korea could attempt additional SLBM launches

Posted on : 2016-04-26 15:52 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
Recent launch only flew for an estimated 30km, which indicates a possible technical flaw
Photos from North Korea‘s state media of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the East Sea on Apr. 23. They claimed the launch was successful.
Photos from North Korea‘s state media of the submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in the East Sea on Apr. 23. They claimed the launch was successful.

North Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) showed some technical advancements in its Apr. 23 launch. But the South Korea military said on Apr. 25 that with the test failing to confirm the desired performance, Pyongyang could attempt an additional launch in the near future for additional verification.

Following the launch, North Korea said that all of the technical indicators amply satisfied the demands. In particular, it claimed the test was intended to examine four areas: a cold launch from a maximum depth (a method in which the ballistic missile is ignited and launched after being sent above the water’s surface by the submarine), solid fuel engine flight, stage separation, and the functioning of two nuclear warhead detonation devices.

But military experts had a different take.

Many did agree the launch was largely a success in terms of two of the four aspects, namely the cold launch and solid fuel engine flight.

“It’s not really clear what ‘maximum launch depth’ means, but from the fact that the missile ignited normally after being brought up above the surface on a relatively vertical course, it does look like the cold launch went properly,” said one expert.

The use of a solid fuel rocket for an SLBM launch test was North Korea’s first. A liquid fuel rocket was previously used in a successful missile ejection test in May 2015, with a ballistic missile pushed up to the surface from a submarine.

“The white coloring around the rocket‘s flames and the rounded shape it formed indicates that this almost certainly was a solid fuel rocket,” another expert noted.

But experts also said the two other areas - stage separation and warhead detonator test - did not go as intended. The missile traveled for only 30 km after its launch, which would not have allowed the conditions for testing either. For this reason, many are predicting the North could have an additional test to examine the areas it wasn’t able to this time.

There could be many hurdles to clear before its technology is proven reliable. Indeed, The South Korean Ministry of National Defense believe it will take another three to four years before the North possesses full SLBM technology.

The missile’s stage separation technology was tested in the past with North Korea’s launches of the Unha-3 rocket and Kwangmyongsong-4 satellite. But its nuclear warhead detonator technology has yet to be tested. Ensuring a detonator‘s reliability requires confirming during the warhead’s descent stage to see whether it functions properly after enduring the tremendous heat, vibration, and pressure of atmospheric re-entry.

While the SLBM is believed to have been designed with a firing range of 2,000 km, it only traveled 30 km in the recent test. The short journey could have been caused by a technical flaw - which means North Korea now faces the additional task of making the necessary technical corrections.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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