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After former US Ambassador to South Korea Donald Gregg delivered the keynote address at the Hankyoreh-Busan International Symposium on Oct. 27, he was joined on the stage by Lim Dong-won, director of the board of the Hankyoreh Foundation for Reunification and Culture. Before the two began their talk, Lim read a passage from Gregg’s memoirs (called “Pot Shards: Fragments of a Life Lived in CIA, the White House, and the Two Koreas”): “Americans have a tendency of demonizing foreign leaders or groups that we don’t like or can’t understand, and it’s a tendency that constantly gets us into trouble. The traditional American approach of eliminating or overthrowing regimes only causes confusion and strife.”

This passage provided support to the argument made by the participants in the talk that the North Korean nuclear issue is rooted in the North’s hostile relationship with the US.

“When Gregg was ambassador [to South Korea], I was the South Korean negotiator taking part in high-level dialogue with North Korea. If the American tactical nuclear weapons had not been removed from South Korea on the recommendation of Gregg, the Roh Tae-woo administration [1988-1993] could not even have discussed the joint statement on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” said Lim when the moderator asked him to introduce Gregg. Lim served as Director of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service and as Unification Minister during the administration of Kim Dae-jung [1998-2003].

Lim also recalled how the Team Spirit joint military exercises between South Korea and the US had been discontinued in 1992 on Gregg’s recommendation, and that movement on these two issues had enabled North and South Korea to produce the inter-Korean basic agreement during the high-level talks. Lim and Gregg’s talk was hosted by Moon Chung-in, professor at Yonsei University.

Is there no hope of North Korea being denuclearized?

When Moon asked Gregg and Lim their opinions on recent comments by US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper that “the notion of getting the North Koreans to denuclearize is probably a lost cause,” both Gregg and Lim refused to agree with Clapper’s view.

“The road to denuclearization is a long and hard one, but since we recently succeeded in the nuclear negotiations with Iran, I think that we can reach a real breakthrough if we seek one with patience, persistence and wisdom,” Gregg said.

Gregg also expressed his view that Clapper’s attitude was inappropriate. “I also worked for an intelligence service for 30 years. Intelligence agents are supposed to collect and analyze intelligence and to provide it to the president, who is the final consumer; it’s not to get involved in policy,” he said.

Gregg also said that one of the reasons why the nuclear talks with North Korea have been sidelined is that “we’ve made the mistake of asking North Korea to yield before we’ve even engaged in dialogue.”

“I was surprised that the person in charge of the US intelligence community spoke so openly and so blatantly,” Lim said, referring to Clapper’s remarks. But when asked about Clapper’s observation that the most the US can hope for is limiting North Korea’s nuclear ability (by carrying out a nuclear freeze), Lim quoted an interview with former US Defense Secretary William Perry in which Perry said that the North Korean policies of George W. Bush and Barack Obama had failed.

“It’s too late to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear program. We need to look for realistic ways to respond. That would mean quickly resuming negotiations that move gradually toward the goal of preventing nuclear proliferation through putting a freeze on nuclear activity rather than by scrapping the program,” Lim added.

Are the North Koreans crazy to cling to their nuclear program?

Moon also asked whether the two figures thought that North Korea’s commitment to its two-track program of strengthening its nuclear arsenal and building its economy was delusional, or whether they thought this was a rational decision.

Lim drew attention to a column called “North Korea, Far from Crazy, Is All Too Rational” that ran in the New York Times after North Korea’s fifth nuclear test in September. Since North Korea is small and globally isolated, Lim argued, it is not crazy but rational to conclude that acquiring nuclear weapons is the only way to survive.

Moon noted that US intelligence describes North Korea as unpredictable and irrational and asked how we should interpret this considering that the US boasts the world’s finest intelligence agencies. Gregg responded by describing this as “the result of mutual demonization.”

Could sanctions and pressure on North Korea resolve the North Korean nuclear issue?

“The administration of South Korean President Park Geun-hye is implementing hardline policies on the belief that the North will not collapse until it is mortally wounded. Do you think that sanctions and pressure on North Korea can bring about the North’s denuclearization?” Moon asked.

Lim summarily rejected that possibility. Arguing that the current administration is taking the wrong approach, he reiterated his view that the way to convince North Korea to suspend its nuclear activity is not pressure and sanctions but rather resuming negotiations. Moon indicated his agreement with this view.

Gregg expressed his opinion that the collapse of North Korea is not in China’s interests, so it’s pointless to try to force China to participate in stronger sanctions.

Nukes for South Korea, a preemptive strike on North Korea

When Moon asked about the recent calls for South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons or to deploy tactical nuclear weapons, Gregg said that he was “completely opposed” to the idea. “It’s regrettable that such things are being said in South Korea, and that would be one of the worst choices that South Korea could make,” Gregg said.

Lim had the same opinion: “It’s not feasible for South Korea to acquire nuclear weapons, and even if it were, it’s not advisable.” “The only way for us to overcome this crisis is for us to work to establish peace and to improve the hostile relationship, which is the primary cause of the North Korean nuclear issue. It isn’t helpful for anyone in South Korea -- except the military-industrial complex – for South Korea to acquire its own nuclear weapons,” he added.

The idea of a preemptive strike against North Korea that has occasionally been proposed in South Korea and the US in recent months is “extremely idiotic,” said Gregg, who wished the question did not need to be asked. He warned that even a small mistake was very likely to lead to the outbreak of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula.

“When Perry was Secretary of Defense in 1994, the US was planned to launch a precision air strike to eliminate North Korea’s capacity to produce nuclear materials. Even that plan was built on the assumption that it might lead to a full-scale war,” Lee said. “I think we should refrain from all actions that could lead to a war that would result in the destruction of the people of North and South Korea.”

During the talk, which lasted for about one hour and 30 minutes, Gregg and Lim fielded more than 30 questions from the audience. One member of the audience pointed out that Gregg had praised UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and asked what role Ban could play in the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

“Ban has worked cautiously on many things, and though it may not appear so on the surface, he has striven to bring about the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. He has worked on this for his entire life, and I think that he’ll be able to play a major role in this,” Gregg said.

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter and Kang Tae-ho, senior staff writer

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