Kim Jong-nam’s killing another blow to North Korea-China relations

Posted on : 2017-02-16 12:28 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
China had apparently been protecting Kim, and may view killing as a breach of its protective zone
The story of the killing of Kim Jong-nam received extensive coverage in the Chinese media on Feb. 15. (Yonhap News)
The story of the killing of Kim Jong-nam received extensive coverage in the Chinese media on Feb. 15. (Yonhap News)

The apparent assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s half-brother Jong-nam appears likely to become another serious burden on relations between Pyongyang and Beijing, which have already soured over the North’s ballistic missile launches.

The Chinese government was cautious, stating that “facts need to be confirmed first.” While definite details on the circumstances of Kim Jong-nam’s death remain unknown, it is expected to have considerable repercussions if Pyongyang, and Kim Jong-un in particular, is found to have been behind it.

After Kim Jong-un came to power, Kim Jong-nam spent much of his time in Beijing, Macao, and elsewhere in China, with many in Beijing diplomatic circles assuming him to be under Chinese protection. Under those circumstances, China appears likely to take North Korea‘s elimination of him as an infringement on its own protective zone.

Kim Jong-nam was also close with his uncle, the late former Workers’ Party of Korea Central Administrative Department chief Jang Song-thaek, who filled the gap as a father figure since his childhood, and was seen as part of Pyongyang’s pro-Beijing faction alongside Jang, who played an important role in North Korea-China interchange before his 2013 execution.

While the Chinese government has not directly acknowledged it, some have maintained that Beijing was managing Kim Jong-nam as a potential replacement for his brother in the event of a regime change. It’s another reason the identification of Pyongyang as being responsible for his assassination could infuriate Beijing. The year 2014, following Jang’s execution, saw North Korea-China trade experiencing negative growth (-2.4%) for the first time since 2000.

For now, Beijing is expected to observe the situation with Malaysian authorities’ investigation of Kim’s death until the facts can be confirmed. A celebratory event for Kim Jong-il’s birthday - the “Day of the Shining Star” holiday on Feb. 16 - was reportedly held as scheduled at the North Korean embassy in Beijing on the evening of Feb. 15, with representatives invited from the Chinese Communist Party. Spring (Lunar New Year) events were also held on Jan. 24 at the Chinese embassy in Pyongyang and last week at the North Korean embassy in Beijing.

At the same time, Beijing looks poised to continue joining in sanctions against Pyongyang as agreed upon by the international community, include a press statement unanimously adopted by the UN Security Council in connection with North Korea’s ballistic missile launch on Feb. 12.

A negative impact on Pyongyang’s relationship with Washington also appears inevitable. In addition to the US government’s already cautious stance, the absence of any dialogue or negotiations at present means Kim Jong-nam’s assassination is unlikely to have much of a direct impact on ties for the time being. But it does appear likely to exacerbate US public opinion against North Korea and hurt its reputation further in the short term, which could be reflected in future North Korea policies from the Donald Trump administration.

The Japanese government has remained very tight-lipped. Speaking at a regular press conference on Feb. 15, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said Tokyo was “holding a joint intelligence meeting this morning to gather and analyze intelligence together with the other countries involved, including South Korea and Malaysia.”

By Kim Oi-hyun, Yi Yong-in and Gil Yun-hyung, Beijing, Washington and Tokyo correspondents

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

 

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