hankyoreh

Gong Keyu

Gong Keyu, a senior researcher at the Center for Asian-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies and a Chinese expert on Korean Peninsula affairs, predicted that the summit meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would ultimately lead to diplomatic deliberations. Gong made the prediction during an interview with the Hankyoreh’s Beijing correspondent on Apr. 10, in which she remarked that “the North Korean nuclear issue is challenging because Trump has to do something as American president, but the difficult problem is that there isn’t much he can do.”　

Hankyoreh (Hani): Some are saying that no agreement was made about North Korea during the summit.

Gong Keyu (Gong): There were no disagreements between the two sides on the general principles that the North Korean issue is important, that China and the US need to cooperate, that a peaceful solution is necessary and that UN Security Council sanctions against North Korea must be strictly implemented. But it looks like another agreement took place behind closed doors.

Hani: Some reports are saying that the two sides agreed to expand sanctions against North Korea.

Gong: I think that’s a possibility, but the US doesn’t have a lot of viable options. In the end, there are three ways to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue: dialogue and negotiations, sanctions and pressure, and a military strike. The US thinks that the dialogue China is talking about is pointless, and it isn’t prepared militarily either. Ultimately the only remaining option is “double pressure” - in which the US puts pressure on North Korea not only directly but also through China.

Hani: You don’t think the US is prepared militarily?

Gong: I think the US doesn’t currently have an option that ensures it could annihilate North Korea in a single blow and prevent the North from mounting a counterattack. The US also has no way of knowing what work would be required after a military strike or how China and Russia might retaliate. Furthermore, the US isn’t having enough discussions about a wartime situation with South Korea and Japan, which don’t want a nuclear war.

Hani: Some believe that Trump’s decision to attack Syria was intended as a message to China and North Korea.

Gong: I don’t think that’s the case. If it was, it would only have strengthened the North’s resolve to possess nukes.

Hani: Do you think the US’s “double pressure” could work?

Gong: The US is already using all the sanctions at its disposal. If it had enough sanctions, no one in the US would be bringing up a secondary boycott, and a secondary boycott could never succeed without the cooperation of China and Russia. The outcome of this summit is that a solution must ultimately be found through diplomacy in the cooperation between China and the US. This explains the increasing amount of diplomatic contact, including the phone call between Trump and South Korean acting president Hwang Kyo-ahn and visits to South Korea by Wu Dawei, China’s envoy to the Six-Party Talks, and US Vice President Mike Pence.

By Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]