Korean peninsula tensions rising with rare redeployment of USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier

Posted on : 2017-04-11 16:40 KST Modified on : 2019-10-19 20:29 KST
This month North Korea is scheduled to hold several commemorative events, when it often conducts rocket launches
US military power increase around the Korean peninsula
US military power increase around the Korean peninsula

The tension index is rising after the unusual decision to send the US aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson back to the Korean Peninsula two weeks after its departure.

The launch of large-scale joint South Korea-US logistical exercises and the scheduling of several “commemoration days” when North Korea is seen as likely to engage in tension-raising actions mean the possibility of an unintended clash cannot be ruled out. But experts were almost unanimous in agreeing that the US move was not intended as a step toward military action.

The dispatch of the Carl Vinson does appear directly connected to various internal events scheduled in North Korea for this month.

“There haven’t been any unusual trends by the North Korean military. This doesn’t seem to be the groundwork for any kind of military measure right now,” said a South Korean military official.

“With so many events scheduled in North Korea for April, the likelihood of a strategic provocation like a sixth nuclear test is high, and it looks like the aim is to put pressure on North Korea ahead of time to prevent that,” the official said.

On Apr. 11, North Korea is to hold a meeting of the Supreme People‘s Assembly, its equivalent of the South Korean National Assembly. It will be five years to the day since former leader Kim Jong-il was named “eternal general secretary” of the Korean Workers’ Party and his son Kim Jong-un was chosen as first party secretary. April 15 is the Day of the Sun holiday, marking the 105th anniversary of former leader Kim Il-sung‘s birth. Apr. 25 will be the 85th anniversary of the establishment of the People’s Army. In past years, North Korea has conducted rocket launches during the event-heavy month of April to show off its internal solidarity and send messages to the outside world.

The problem this time has to do with the concentration of other US military power around the peninsula besides the Carl Vinson. On Apr. 10, the South Korean and US militaries began Operation Pacific Reach, a large-scale logistical support training exercise in the area of Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province, to practice war material logistics in the event of an emergency in the rear area. Taking place until Apr. 21, the exercises involve 1,200 South Korean troops and around 2,500 US troops, including reinforcements from overseas.

The situation is calling new attention to recent exercises in the West (Yellow) Sea region by a group including the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning.

North Korea has traditionally reacted sensitively to joint South Korea-US exercises and the deployment of strategic US assets. It‘s for this reason that neighboring countries are concerned about an unexpected response from North Korea leading to an unintended clash.

“If North Korea feels its security threatened by the deployment of a US aircraft carrier, this could result in unexpected, impulsive actions by the North Korean leadership,” Russian Council of the Federation Committee on Defense and Security chairperson Viktor Ozerov was quoted as saying on Apr. 9 by the Russian news agency RIA Novosti.

But while fears continue to mount on the peninsula after the recent US strike against Syria, its activities don’t appear to be a step toward any immediate preemptive military action against North Korea.

“In Syria, there was already a civil war going on, and it was a region that Russia and NATO had been making continued air raids on,” explained a Washington source.

“The Korean Peninsula and Syria situations are clearly different,” the source said.

Unification Ministry spokesperson Lee Duk-haeng similarly said in an Apr. 10 briefing that the US “has expressed its support for the Republic of Korea‘s North Korea policy, and our government’s position is that all issues are to be resolved peacefully.”

“There is no need to worry greatly [about a possible preemptive strike by the US],” he added.

But Korea National Strategy Institute director Kim Chang-soo cautioned, “Even if the US does not actually carry out a preemptive strike, the only ones to suffer politically and economically if the military crisis intensifies are South Korea.”

On the Carl Vinson‘s abrupt change in course, Kyungnam University Institute for Far Eastern Studies professor Kim Dong-yeop said, “US aircraft carrier groups are a strategic asset, and the chances of one moving differently from schedule simply to target North Korea are low.”

“It seems to me that the US military might be making changes in the deployment and operation of strategic assets at the global level because of the situation in Syria and other factors,” Kim said.

By Yi Yong-in and Kim Oi-hyun, Washington and Beijing correspondents, Park Byong-su, senior staff writer, Jung In-hwan, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

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