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The nomination of Cho Myung-gyun as Minister of Unification on June 13 effectively marked the last of the Moon Jae-in administration’s foreign affairs and national security Cabinet appointments. While the position of National Security Office second deputy director remains vacant and National Assembly confirmation hearings still have to be completed for Minister of Foreign Affairs nominee Kang Kyung-wha and other nominees, the outline for the new administration‘s foreign affairs and national security policy appears to be in place.

The selections of National Intelligence Service (NIS) director nominee Suh Hoon and Cho were seen as signaling Moon’s own aims of “correcting the abnormal”. Suh, a leading expert in North Korea strategy who played a guiding role in two inter-Korean summits, is also an “NIS man” who has served as director of North Korea strategy and third deputy director for the service. He is likely to focus his energies on rooting out interference in domestic politics by the service and normalizing its functions toward a resolution of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and other issues.

The return of Cho and new Vice Minister Chun Hae-sung to the Ministry of Unification is also seen as signaling Moon’s strong commitment to usher in conciliation and cooperation between South and North - something that has been almost entirely absent under the previous two conservative administrations. Career government officials who enforced North Korea policy on the ground during the Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) and Roh Moo-hyun (2008-13) administrations, they have been rated as optimal figures to help thaw inter-Korean relations and restore the stature of a Ministry of Unification that all but lost its identity under the Lee Myung-bak (2008-13) and Park Geun-hye (2013-16) administrations.

Analysts also pointed to the selection of Minister of National Defense nominee Song Young-moo, a career Navy man who has served in several key positions in the Joint Chiefs of Staff headquarters, as aimed at achieving military reforms and progress in inter-Korean relations.

“The new government’s aim is to pursue North Korea policy on the foundation of a strong security posture, as was the case during the past period of North Korea engagement policy,” said a foreign affairs and national security expert who worked in Moon’s election camp.

“Song‘s task will be to undertake defense reforms to establish solid security to underpin North Korea policy,” the expert predicted.

The nominations of Chung Eui-yong as National Security Office chief and Kang Kyung-wha were seen as a move to generate the diplomatic traction needed to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, which has turned into a complex higher-order equation. By bring in Chung, a career diplomat, and Kang, who has demonstrated her skill with multilateral diplomacy at the UN, the administration is signaling its aim to tweak and improve an external environment that is reaching worst-case proportions amid North Korea’s ongoing provocations.

The prospects for the Moon administration’s North Korea policy don’t appear rosy just yet. Inter-Korean relations involve two sides, and North Korea‘s position has remained unyielding. The new administration’s signals that it hopes to resume private exchange between the two sides - including approval for a number of meetings with North Korea since Moon took office - have been rebuffed by Pyongyang, which has continued engaging in provocations with its missiles. The nuclear issue remains the thorniest of matters to resolve.

In a statement issued for the 17th anniversary of the June 15 Joint Declaration on June 14, the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea (CPRK), North Korea’s organization for South Korea affairs, declared that “measures urgently need to be adopted to reduce the acute military tensions on the Korean Peninsula.” As specific examples, it cited the “hot spot in the West (Yellow) Sea, the Northern Limit Line (NLL), and the Military Demarcation Line (MDL).”

“There are going to need to be practical actions to reduce military tensions,” it insisted.

Korea National Strategy Institute director Kim Chang-soo interpreted the CPRK statement as “meaning [Pyongyang] has set a course for South Korea policy toward resolving political and military issues first and pursuing private and economic exchange only after that.”

“Since the South-North Basic Agreement was adopted in 1991, the course of inter-Korean relations has shifted toward a two-track approach of political and military issues on one side and private and economic exchange on the other,” Kim added. “It feels like the North is going back to its South Korea policy from the regime antagonism era before that.”

If true, this means it will take some time to release inter-Korean relations from their deep freeze, no matter how committed the Moon administration is.

By Jung In-hwan, staff reporter

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