hankyoreh

Tony Namgung during an interview with the Hankyoreh (by Kim Kyung-ho

“South Korea can’t take the lead in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. But it can play a leading role in creating the conditions that will lead North Korea and the US to come to the table to resolve that issue,” said Tony Namkung during an interview with the Hankyoreh on the morning of June 19. The former deputy director of the Institute of East Asian Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, Namkung is regarded as one of the US’s leading experts on North Korea.

“If the new administration pushes for trilateral talks between South Korea, North Korea and the US, it would be able to exercise leadership,” Namkung said. He reported that he had been to Pyongyang in April and hinted that behind-the-scenes contact is taking place between the US and North Korea. Here’s the text of the Hankyoreh’s interview with Namkung.

Hankyoreh (Hani): There are serious concerns that Otto Warmbier being released in a coma could worsen North Korea-US relations.

Tony Namkung (Namkung): While this is an unfortunate situation, I think it could actually have a positive effect. Warmbier’s release was the first example in a very long time of cooperation between the US and North Korean governments. Doctors have said that Warmbier was not malnourished and that there was no evidence of torture or other cruel treatment.

Hani: Why do you think he was only released now?

Namkung: Last year, the so-called “decapitation operation” was included in the South Korea-US joint military exercises, which infuriated North Korea. I think the reason they‘ve released him now is because they consider President Trump to be someone they can negotiate with.

Hani: Are you saying that there could be behind the scenes contact between the US and North Korea?

Namkung: I think there could be. When Joseph Yun (US State Department special representative for North Korea policy) visited Pyongyang to arrange Warmbier’s release, he visited all three of the Americans detained there. That’s worth paying attention to. North Korea seems to have sent a clear signal.

Hani: The Trump administration has chosen “maximum pressure and engagement” as its North Korean policy.

Namkung: It’s a two-stage process. The first stage is applying “maximum pressure” to bring North Korea to the table for talks. The second stage of “maximum engagement” implies the possibility of making completely unprecedented proposals to North Korea, such as a peace treaty, normalization of relations and revoking sanctions. But North Korea won‘t be interested in this kind of stage-based strategy. Pressure or engagement-you can only choose one of the two. This policy framework needs to be changed.

Hani: Is North Korea’s denuclearization a prerequisite for dialogue?

Namkung: Reports of that sort appear in the South Korean media, but I’m not sure what the grounds are for that. Denuclearization is supposed to be what the negotiations culminate in; it can’t be their prerequisite.

Hani: Do you think dialogue would be possible if North Korea postpones its nuclear weapons and missile tests?

Namkung: On a personal level, I think so. But right now we‘re just at the initial phase.

Hani: South Korea’s new administration has expressed its willingness to restore inter-Korean relations.

Namkung: North Korea puts a priority on political and military issues, which are issues that it has to work through with the US. Improving inter-Korean relations comes after that. If progress is made on talks between the US and North Korea, that could actually lead to a breakthrough in inter-Korean relations. South Korea can’t take the lead in resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, but it can take the lead in North Korea-US dialogue aimed at resolving that issue.

Hani: Do you have any advice for the upcoming South Korea-US summit?

Namkung: President Trump is completely different from previous politicians. President Moon Jae-in should also deviate from familiar formulas and bring new ideas. It’s important to ask what role South Korea will play [in North Korea-US relations].

By Jung In-hwan and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporters

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]