Experts say Seoul should be patient and proactive in restoring inter-Korean relations

Posted on : 2017-07-19 16:31 KST Modified on : 2017-07-19 16:31 KST
North Korea has not yet responded to offer for military and Red Cross talks, and South Korea now must wait calmly
President Moon Jae-in makes introductory remarks at a luncheon with Song Young-moo and Han Min-koo
President Moon Jae-in makes introductory remarks at a luncheon with Song Young-moo and Han Min-koo

In regard to Seoul’s simultaneous proposals for military talks and Red Cross talks with North Korea on July 17, experts on July 18 said that this was not a time to rush but to calmly wait and prepare. In particular, it’s only when the government demonstrates its willingness to restore inter-Korean relations not only through words but also through actions that the North is likely to engage in inter-Korean dialogue on friendly terms, these experts said. 

Wait calmly for now

Now that Seoul has proposed dialogue with Pyongyang, it needs to wait calmly, many think. “I don’t think we should be rushing things right now. We should respond after we see North Korea’s reaction,” said Gu Gab-woo, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies. Making a false step out of nervousness about North Korea delaying its response might be counterproductive for restoring inter-Korean relations, Gu said.

Even in practical terms, there’s virtually nothing that the government can do. During the Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) and Roh Moo-hyun (2003-08) administrations, there were official and unofficial channels in operation between North and South Korea, and these channels could be used to sound out the other side’s intentions. But since these channels were all severed during the administrations of Lee Myung-bak (2008-13) and Park Geun-hye (2013-16), the only practical option is to wait for North Korea to react. “From our perspective, it‘s clearly necessary to have dialogue soon, but in terms of whether the conditions are in place for North Korea to accept dialogue, this proposal for dialogue does feel a little rushed. This seems to be the time to wait calmly,” said Lee Jeong-cheol, a professor at Soongsil University.

Show the willingness to engage in dialogue

Experts argue that in order to make progress on inter-Korean dialogue, Seoul needs to proactively show that it’s willing to restore inter-Korean relations. “Our assumption that adopting a policy of engagement will necessarily draw out North Korea could be wrong. In order to bring North Korea into productive talks, we need to show that we’re willing to give the North what it really wants,” Gu said.

The government’s pledge to uphold the June 15 Joint Statement and the Oct. 4 Summit Statement in President Moon Jae-in’s recent Berlin Declaration and other occasions and the blueprint it has provided for inter-Korean cooperation would appear to show its willingness to restore inter-Korean relations. But the government has shown no flexibility on suspending the South Korea-US joint military exercises, as North Korea has long demanded, nor has it offered a new outlook on pending issues such as the May 24 Measures (sanctions barring inter-Korean trade, put in place after the 2010 sinking of the Cheonan warship), reopening the Kaesong Industrial Complex and resuming tourism to Mt. Keumgang. “If we don’t show up in a generous mood, inter-Korean talks will always be arguments and won’t turn out well, even if they do take place,” Gu said. 

Work out a position on the agenda of the talks

Another view is that South Korea needs to prepare for the possibility that North Korea will make a counteroffer in regard to the proposals for military talks and Red Cross talks. It is necessary, these experts say, for the government to come up with a position on the larger issue of improving inter-Korean relations.

The government’s major intentions for the military talks appear to be discussing the loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts along the DMZ, the launch of balloons carrying propaganda pamphlets, and preventing unplanned clashes. But North Korea might define hostile military activities to include South Korea-US joint military exercises, including the Ulchi Freedom Guardian Exercises, which will be held next month. And in regard to the Red Cross talks, North Korea could propose discussing not only the reunions of the families divided by the Korean War but also the repatriation of 12 North Korean waitresses who defected in Apr. 2016 and Kim Ryon-hui, a defector who wants to return to the North. “We‘re not going to get away with discussing only the things we want to discuss. We’re going to have to work on a forward-looking position on the offers that North Korea makes,” said former Unification Minister Jeong Se-hyun.

Some experts also spoke of the need for close cooperation with South Korea‘s neighbors, including the US and China. “We need to explain to the US and others about the need for inter-Korean dialogue that is unrelated to the North Korean nuclear issue in order to relax tensions between the two sides,” said Kim Yong-hyeon, a professor at Dongguk University.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer, and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]

 

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