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North Korean leader Kim Jong-un looks at an operational map for the “enveloping strike” on Guam at the Army Strategic Force command headquarters on Aug. 14. The map shows a straight line from North Korea to the American territory of Guam. (North Korean Central News Agency/Yonhap News)

North Korea and the US have each taken a step back from the hostile rhetoric that had plunged the Korean Peninsula into a state of dire crisis. Tensions have ebbed significantly after being touched off by North Korea’s successive ICBM test launches and US President Donald Trump’s references to “fire and fury” [in response]. But experts pointed to a number of lurking variables that could block the two sides from engaging in open dialogue.

During an Aug. 14 inspection of the strategic military command that outlined plans to strike near Guam, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un declared that he would “continue observing the actions of the foolish and stupid US bastards, who are having a tough time,” the Korean Central News Agency reported on Aug. 15. The quote confirmed that Kim has no plans to face the US head-on any time soon.

Kim went on to say he would “make a momentous decision as already stated if [the US] continues testing our restraint and engaging in dangerous rashness around the [Korean] Peninsula.”

“You [the strategic military command] must have a constant launch posture so that you can begin combat at any time if the decision is made by the party,” he added, signaling that the military response card could be played again at any time depending on Washington’s actions.

The three-day war of words between Pyongyang and Washington was sparked by Trump’s “fire and fury” remarks on Aug. 8 and the North Korean military’s response with a statement of plans for an “enveloping strike” near Guam. Trump ratcheted things up further over the next few days with remarks declaring “military solutions fully in place,” including the potential use of nuclear weapons. The North Korean military answered by presenting detailed plans for its strike near Guam.

After seeming to go back and forth several times in his stance, Trump has remained quiet since stating his preference for a peaceful solution during a press conference he attended on the afternoon of Aug. 11 with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, who has consistently advocated for a diplomatic resolution. Tillerson also joined Secretary of Defense James Mattis in submitting a contribution to the Wall Street Journal on Aug. 13 stating their intention of negotiations with North Korea.

With senior officials in the US administration unanimously confirming that they have no plans of taking preemptive military action against the North, the crisis has been more or less totally defanged. Kim Jong-un’s remarks on Aug. 14 also showed the strong impression of his support for the US’s attempts to calm the situation down.

“North Korea’s message to date has been consistent: when there has been talk of a preemptive strike from the US, it has shown that it has its own response capabilities, and it has also indicated it does not intend to respond if the US doesn’t attempt a preemptive strike,” said Inje University professor Kim Yeon-chul.

Mattis delivered a message of warning over the Guam strike plans on Aug. 14, saying, “If they fire at the United States . . . that’s called war.” But this was only a reference to a military response action.

While the risk of an unplanned military clash on the peninsula appears to be averted for now, many observers said the embers of tension have not fully died out. To begin with, the Ulchi-Freedom Guardian joint military exercises by South Korea and the US are scheduled to start on Aug. 21. The sense of alarm in North Korea tends to rise when joint military exercises are taking place.

“North Korea is going to watch to see how the Ulchi-Freedom Guardian exercises play out,” Kim Yeon-chul predicted.

If the exercises do pass without incident, the two sides are seen as very likely to enter a “quiet but fraught” balancing act as their back-channel meetings begin in earnest sometime around next month. The Washington Post reported on Aug. 13 that an August visit to the US by Choe Son-hui, director of the North Korean Foreign Ministry’s US affairs bureau, was pushed during behind-the-scenes dialogue by the two sides through their New York channel.

While the negotiations eventually broke down, attempts at dialogue appear to continue between the two sides. With so much on the line for both North Korea and the United States, however, it will likely be difficult to find common ground to enter denuclearization negotiations. On the other hand, if they do manage to find a point of compromise, they could end up moving relatively quickly into open and official negotiations.

But if the behind-the-scenes meetings do not prove fruitful, observers warned North Korea could go back to raising tensions and the US to applying heavy pressure on Pyongyang.

“The Guam strike card is something North Korea could choose to play again if it needs to,” predicted University of North Korean Studies professor Koo Kab-woo. Trump’s mouth also remains a potential powder keg.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent, Park Byong-su, senior staff writer and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

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