President Moon issues ‘red line’ to North Korea over nuclear program

Posted on : 2017-08-18 18:16 KST Modified on : 2017-08-18 18:16 KST
Technical ability to place a nuclear warhead on an ICBM “will not be tolerated”
President Moon Jae-in gives an opening statement prior to his press conference in the Blue House reception room on Aug. 17 on the occasion of his 100th day in office (Blue House photo pool)
President Moon Jae-in gives an opening statement prior to his press conference in the Blue House reception room on Aug. 17 on the occasion of his 100th day in office (Blue House photo pool)

On August 17, President Moon Jae drew a ‘red line’ with regard to North Korea’s nuclear and missile program, issuing a stern warning to the government in Pyongyang. This move is expected to cause controversy, as it is the first time the South Korean government has officially made an announcement regarding behavior that ‘will not be tolerated.’

During a press conference held to mark the 100th day of his presidency, President Moon stated “At the point where North Korea is able to build an ICBM armed with a nuclear warhead, I believe that is where we need to draw a red line, and it appears that the North is drawing closer to that critical line.” A red line usually refers to a threshold that ‘must not be crossed’ or a situation where crossing such a threshold ‘will not be tolerated’. This sends a strong message to North Korea, which is currently working to build a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the US mainland.

Last month, North Korea test-launched two ‘Hwasong-14’ ICBMs, claiming that it had the capability to attack the US mainland. The second missile launch near the end of July is believed to have reached a height of 3700km, which means that it could travel 9000-10,000km if launched at a regular angle. This is enough to bring at least the west coast of the US within range. The danger presented by the ability to attack the US mainland directly was made clear by the North’s recent threat to attack Guam. Alongside the North Korean threat to the US, the possibility of a pre-emptive or retaliatory strike by the US has made the security situation on the Korean Peninsula more precarious. President Moon’s statement on North Korea can thus be interpreted as a cautionary response to the situation.

President Moon Jae-in listens to a reporter’s question at a press conference in the Blue House reception room on Aug. 17. (Blue House photo pool)
President Moon Jae-in listens to a reporter’s question at a press conference in the Blue House reception room on Aug. 17. (Blue House photo pool)

To develop a nuclear-tipped ICBM, North Korea still has to overcome the challenges of miniaturizing a warhead and developing re-entry technology. The South Korean Defense Ministry believes that there is no evidence the North has obtained such technology yet. However, many experts have pointed out that this is only a matter of time since the regime continues to pour funding into its nuclear and missile programs.

“At the present stage, the international community agrees that we need to prevent any further provocations, which is why the UN Security Council recently passed the strongest ever sanctions against North Korea with a unanimous vote,” President Moon stated. “If North Korea engages in another provocation, the regime will face even greater sanctions that it will not be able to withstand,” he added. “The North must refrain from this kind of dangerous behavior.”

This is not the first time that President Moon has spoken of a red line. On July 4, he spoke about the issue in a reception with former UK Prime Minister David Cameron. “If North Korea fails to comply with the peaceful path to denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula agreed upon by Korean and US leaders or crosses the red line, there is no telling what our response may be,” he said. President Trump also mentioned a red line in a statement regarding North Korea’s nuclear and missile program in May, warning “I don't like red lines, but I have to act, if I must act.”

However, before Moon’s statement yesterday, no mention had been made of the specific nature of the red line. This had left the question open to debate. If North Korea engages in another provocation in the form of a nuclear or missile test, it could lead to controversy over whether such behavior crossed the red line drawn by President Moon. The government may also come under pressure from the public regarding what measures should be taken if the North does cross the line. Some observers point out that the government has backed itself into a corner by limiting its ability to respond flexibly to North Korea.

By Park Byong-su, senior staff writer

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