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At 5:57 am on Aug. 29, North Korea fired an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) that passed through Japanese airspace. The Japanese government announced that the North Korean missile flew above Cape Erimo on the island of Hokkaido from 6:05 to 6:07 before splashing down in the waters of the Pacific Ocean about 1,180 km east of Cape Erimo at 6:12. South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) stated that this was the first time that North Korea had launched a missile from the Pyongyang Sunan International Airport, located in the vicinity of Pyongyang, and estimated that the missile had traveled for a total of 2,700 km.

It is unusual for North Korea to shoot a missile through Japanese air space without providing any advance warning. “The violent act of launching a missile that passes through our airspace is a grave and serious threat that we have not seen before,” said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe while presiding over a meeting of the National Security Council.

The Japanese Foreign Ministry said that this was the first time for a North Korean missile to pass through Japanese airspace without advance warning since a Taepodong-1 launch in 1998. Japan assessed this missile to be the Hwasong-12 IRBM that North Korea threatened to use in an “enveloping strike” around Guam.

Analysts think that North Korea’s selection of a route passing through Japanese airspace had multiple objectives: flaunting its ability to hit Guam, countering the US-Japan alliance and warning that Japan and American forces in Japan are within striking range. The missile launched by North Korea “has a maximum range of 5,000 km, so obviously it would be capable of reaching Guam,” said Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera during a press conference held on the same day.

Experts believe that North Korea fired the missile to the east to demonstrate its ability to hit Guam while avoiding the American retaliation it might provoke by firing a missile directly at the waters around Guam. “North Korea didn’t aim directly at Guam, but it appears to have selected Japan as a place where it can be a little more menacing in its battle of nerves with the US. I would say that this was a meticulously planned launch,” said Kim Jun-hyeong, a professor at Handong Global University.

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

Another objective appears to have been provoking Japan while checking the US-Japan alliance. “By sending the missile through Japanese air space, North Korea has committed a bold provocation that will upset Japan. It has shown that Japan’s major cities are definitely within range of [its missiles],” the NIS told the South Korean National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee on Aug. 29.

A source in the South Korean military said that “this was designed to flaunt its ability to strike American reserve garrisons.” Military analysts believe that North Korea was warning that it is capable of attacking US forces in Japan and the seven rear bases of the UN Command on the Japanese homeland, and on Okinawa that would be responsible for supporting the Korean Peninsula in the event of a crisis.

Other analysts think that a call for dialogue was concealed in the missile launch. “While the US said that it is willing to engage in dialogue, it keeps relying on sanctions, so North Korea appears to have taken action instead of waiting,” said Lee Jong-won, a professor at Waseda University.

Abe said that he told US President Donald Trump during a telephone conversation on Aug. 29 that “this is not the time to talk to North Korea.” But pundits continue to predict that Abe himself might engage in dialogue with the North. At the beginning of this month, the Japanese evening tabloid Nikkan Gendai reported that freelance journalist Soichiro Tahara suggested to Abe during a meal together that Abe should stake his political career on a bold move like visiting the North. As Abe’s approval rating plummets, some say that he needs a diplomatic victory to overcome his crisis.

The fact that North Korea has also increased the threat while taking steps to involve Japan could bring a new factor to the equation. Abe’s political career took off when he accompanied then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi on a visit to North Korea in 2002, when Abe was serving as Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary.

By Cho Ki-weon, Tokyo correspondent and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter

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