[News analysis] Experts call for South Korean policy shift on North Korea

Posted on : 2017-08-30 17:36 KST Modified on : 2017-08-30 17:36 KST
Lack of overall strategy hampers government attempts to break the cycle of provocations
President Moon Jae-in seems deep in thought following an appointment ceremony that took place at the Blue House on Aug. 29.  (Blue House Photo Pool)
President Moon Jae-in seems deep in thought following an appointment ceremony that took place at the Blue House on Aug. 29. (Blue House Photo Pool)

North Korea is once again ratcheting up its provocations. After firing a short-range missile on Aug. 26, it launched an intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM) on Aug. 29 that passed through Japanese airspace. This could resurrect the rumors about a crisis on the Korean Peninsula that were rampant during the “war of words” between North Korea and the US leading up to the Ulchi-Freedom Guardian South Korea-US joint military exercises.

North Korea’s preemptive actions and the corresponding responses are perpetuating a vicious cycle of crisis that resembles the legend of Sisyphus, according to some experts, who think it’s time to find a sweeping policy change that could end this vicious cycle.

■ North Korea is steadily raising the threat level

The IRBM that North Korea launched on the morning of Aug. 29 flew for about 2,700 km before dropping into the northern Pacific Ocean. This can be seen as North Korea flaunting its ability to carry out an “all-out strike on US forces in the Pacific theater of operations,” as the General Staff Department of the North Korean People's Army (KPA) said on Aug 8. The next phase mentioned by North Korea was an “enveloping strike” around Guam. The Hwasong-12 missile that the North successfully test launched on May 14 is believed to have a range of 4,000 to 6,000 km, which would place Guam within its reach.

The South Korean government described the three short-range missiles (with a range of 250 km) that the North fired on the morning of Aug. 26 as being a “low-level provocation.” Seoul concluded that, with the US making conciliatory gestures toward the North, Pyongyang had “toned things down” as well. But a 250-km short-range missile is still capable of hitting not only Seoul and the headquarters of the Third ROK Army at Gyeryongdae in South Chungcheong Province, but also US bases at Pyeongtaek and Daegu. In other words, this launch can also be seen as a show of force invoking the “strike deep into the southern half of the peninsula” mentioned by the KPA General Staff Department.

In its recent string of provocations, North Korea is believed to be progressively raising the threat level according to the “North Korean-style preemptive strike” plan contained in a statement released by the spokesperson of the KPA General Staff Department on Aug. 8. In this statement, the North stated that it could simultaneously attack Seoul and areas deep in the southern half of the peninsula and launch an all-out strike on US air bases throughout the Pacific theater of operations. On Aug. 9, Kim Rak-gyom, commander of the KPA Strategic Forces, personally referred to an “enveloping strike on Guam.”

“North Korea appears to be following its previous statement to the letter. The North knows that the US will probably launch a retaliatory attack if it carries out its ‘enveloping strike’ around Guam, and it has basically made an overt threat to the US by taking Seoul and Tokyo as hostages to deter any retaliatory strike,” said Kim Chang-soo, director of the Korea National Strategy Institute.

■ This vicious cycle of provocations and response must be broken

It seems obvious why North Korea is once again whipping up a sense of crisis. Every time that dialogue has become more likely, the North has engaged in the tactic of brinkmanship – elevating the threat level to gain the upper hand in the negotiations. The problem is that as North Korea once again engages in “strategic provocations,” the international community, including South Korea and the US, find themselves left with no choice but to impose more sanctions on the North, rather than to engage in dialogue. This is the vicious cycle that has continued for more than two decades.

“The North Korean regime under Kim Jong-un has confirmed that it is willing and able to develop nuclear weapons and missiles despite the pressure of the international community. Since the US, China and South Korea have basically exhausted all the available [sanctions], they’re left in a serious predicament,” said Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University, during a telephone conversation with the Hankyoreh on Aug. 29.

“The important thing is the position of the South Korean government. But since we have no formula for responding to these foreseen events, our responses are improvised and driven by intense emotion. In the end, we’re the ones who are increasing the sense of crisis,” said a former senior official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

“North Korea has a clear strategy of completing its nuclear deterrent. Again and again we see a frustrating pattern in which the North takes actions in accordance with that strategy and we make a simplistic response,” said Kim Yeon-chul, a professor at Inje University. “The government often talks about us taking the initiative, and what that means is us taking action and forcing the North to respond. Instead of always rushing around trying to defend against North Korea’s attacks, we need to boldly change policy directions so that we can shift from defense to offense.”

“We’ll never be able to play a leading role during a period of pressure and sanctions, and we’ll only end up being the victims of ‘Korea passing,’ ” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, referring to a common South Korean complaint that Seoul is ignored in peninsular affairs by neighboring countries.

“Even if we join the international community in its sanctions and pressure against North Korea’s provocations, we should at the same time be taking various actions, such as using behind-the-scenes negotiations to create an opportunity for dialogue and to orchestrate talks between the US and North Korea and using our relationships with China and with Russia to urge these two countries to take an active role as mediators,” Yang said.

By Jung In-hwan, Kim Ji-eun, staff reporters and Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent

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