[News Analysis] Moon exhibits contradictory behavior during visit to UN

Posted on : 2017-09-23 22:40 KST Modified on : 2017-09-23 22:40 KST
Agreement to purchase advanced weapons from US goes counter to his General Assembly speech
President Moon Jae-in looks across at the North Korean delegation to the UN prior to giving his keynote address on Sept. 21 (by Kim Kyung-ho
President Moon Jae-in looks across at the North Korean delegation to the UN prior to giving his keynote address on Sept. 21 (by Kim Kyung-ho

On Sept. 21, during his visit to New York to attend the UN General Assembly meeting, President Moon Jae-in's actions regarding diplomacy and security went from one extreme to another. Speaking before the General Assembly, he stressed the urgent need to achieve peace on the Korean Peninsula through peaceful, diplomatic and political efforts, but later, in a summit meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump, he agreed to a deal on the purchase of state-of-the-art American weaponry, raising concerns that this might set off an arms race in northeast Asia.

Barely an hour before the summit meeting, Moon stood on the dais of the General Assembly delivering his keynote address in which he referred to the peaceful spirit of the candlelight rallies that took place in South Korea. He said, “All of our endeavors are to prevent the outbreak of war and maintain peace. In that respect, the situation surrounding the North Korean nuclear issue needs to be managed stably so that tensions will not become overly intensified or unintended military clashes will not destroy peace.”

An expert in diplomacy and security who worked on Moon's presidential campaign said, “The part of President Moon's UN speech that impressed me the most was his use of a quote from former U.S. President Ronald Reagan to emphasize the need to achieve peace by peaceful means. Reagan said, 'Peace is not absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means.'”

However, after the speech, in his summit with President Trump, Moon agreed on a plan for South Korea to strengthen its military capabilities by acquiring state-of-the-art weaponry from the United States or developing high-tech arms on its own to counter the North Korean nuclear and missile threat. He also agreed to the expansion of the rotational deployment of U.S. strategic assets to South Korea and the surrounding region. In a briefing immediately after the summit meeting, Blue House Spokesman Park Su-hyun said, “The two leaders agreed that the toughest pressures and sanctions have to be applied to North Korea to thwart its provocations and push it toward denuclearization.”

About Trump's belligerent speech to the UN a day earlier, in which he promised to "totally destroy North Korea," Moon said, “It was a very powerful speech. I believe that kind of strong approach is certain to bring about change in North Korea.” This amounts to dancing to the beat of Trump's drum.

Moon seems to have agreed to introduce American weapons or develop high-tech arms in Korea because this falls in line with both the Trump administration's emphasis on exports of weaponry and Moon's emphasis on independent national defense capabilities. Trump has pushed for weapons contracts and sales to the point that he has been sarcastically labeled the "lobbyist president." On a visit to Saudi Arabia, he closed a US$110 billion contract for sales of arms to that country, and even in the face of strong opposition by China, he approved US$1.3 billion in sales of weapons to Taiwan.

His obsession with exporting weapons is closely related to his political base. American defense industry giants such as Lockheed Martin and Boeing are among the companies that offer highly qualified employees some of the best paying jobs in the U.S. Also, arms purchases are very large, complex deals that involve a lot of related subcontractors, contributing to job creation. Trump's 10% increase in the U.S. defense budget for next year, in a call to "revitalize" the military, can be seen as a stimulus to create more jobs for the white laborers who are his most active supporters.

President Moon's interest in introducing the state-of-the-art weaponry is aimed at securing for South Korea the ability to stand against the North Korean threat without having to depend on U.S. assistance. The core of Moon's plan to improve South Korea's military might and the country's capability to defend itself involves quickly building what he calls a "three-axis system" that includes the “kill chain” ability to launch preemptive strikes on North Korean leadership, defense systems capable of intercepting missiles, and the ability to inflict massive punishment and retaliation. Moon has also shown an interest in purchasing nuclear submarines. Introduction of high-tech weaponry will relieve some of the anxiety felt in conservative quarters about the North Korean threat and will also have the political effect of enhancing Moon's image as a president who stands for strong national security.

The agreement on the principles discussed at the summit seems to indicate that military authorities on both sides will soon go to work weighing South Korea's needs and demands in relation to American regulations on sales of arms. The beginning of full-scale discussions is expected around the end of October with the Korea-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting and the U.S.-ROK Military Committee Meeting. A Ministry of National Defense source says, “The discussions can be carried out at the Security Consultative Meeting and the Military Committee Meeting, or a separate body for Korea-U.S. working-level consultations can be formed. Such meetings will develop specific guidelines reflecting the agreements made in the summit.” The specifics will probably form the basis for additional negotiations between the two countries when Trump visits South Korea in November.

One problem the process will face is the concerns and resistance from North Korea, China, and Russia. This presents a "security dilemma": they may feel threatened by our increased defense capabilities, leading to an intensification of our own feeling of insecurity. Some experts point out the danger of falling for Trump's "salesmanship" technique of using tension on the Korean Peninsula as an excuse to sell more weapons. After the summit, President Moon attended a luncheon with President Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe where the three agreed on trilateral cooperation.

However, this is a far cry from the sort of multilateralism that President Moon emphasized in his speech at the UN General Assembly when he said, “In order to fundamentally solve the North Korean nuclear issue, the basic spirit of a security community enshrined in the U.N. Charter should be fulfilled on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. Multilateralism and basic pillar of security in northeast Asia should be wisely combined.”

The makeup of the “multilateralism” President Moon referred to is represented in the Joint Statement of September 19, 2005 and the February 13 Agreement of 2007. The idea is to create an exchange program for every step that North Korea takes towards nuclear disarmament. These actions would include replacing the current armistice agreement with a peace treaty, followed by North Korea establishing diplomatic relations with Japan and with the U.S., and the creation of an exchange program wherein North Korea receives economic and energy support. After the Korean Peninsula is free of nuclear weapons, the members of the Six-Party nations could then form a community based around security and the economy.

With the South Korea-U.S. alliance that President Moon emphasizes as a pillar, trilateral cooperation can be useful in the face of the North Korean nuclear and missile threat as it exists today, but it will also inevitably lead to conflict and competition with North Korea, China and Russia. According to one North Korean expert who is well known to the Blue House, “At the moment the trilateral cooperation can be used to pressure North Korea into dialogue, but multilateral cooperation is necessary to resolve the North Korean nuclear crisis.”

“It is important to create space for a gradual transition from trilateral to multilateral cooperation, but realistically it seems this won’t be too easy,” the expert added.

By Jung In-hwan, Kim Bo-hyeop, and Kim Ji-eun, staff reporters, and Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

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