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Michael Green

The big question leading up to US President Donald Trump’s first trip to Asia at the beginning of November is what messages he will send to North Korea and to China. “The Trump administration wants people to believe that it’s prepared to use military options to stop a North Korean ballistic missile from entering the atmosphere above the US,” said Michael Green, professor at Georgetown University and Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Green, who served as senior director for Asia with the National Security Council during the presidency of George W. Bush, also said that “there is apparently no evidence that the Trump administration is preparing for the possibility of a preventive strike,” referring to a preemptive US strike on North Korean nuclear facilities when it is believed that a North Korean threat is imminent.

“A preemptive strike would not be able to destroy all of North Korea’s capabilities. If anything, it would be likely to trigger a bigger war,” Green said. At the same time, he believes that the military options currently mentioned by the Trump administration are designed to threaten China.

Green is ambivalent about the view that, given the risks of American military options, the North Korean issue should be resolved using diplomatic means. “This time, I personally don’t think that a diplomatic solution will work, either,” he said. But Green did say that “the Trump administration needs to make contact or engage in dialogue with North Korea,” if only to understand the mindset of North Korea and its leader Kim Jong-un to prevent the crisis from intensifying.

Contact between North Korea and the US is necessary, Green said, in order to communicate the US government’s stance to the North. “Dialogue [between North Korea and the US] is necessary for effective diplomacy, but the chances that they will get any results from negotiations [alone] are zero. That’s why pressure and dialogue have to proceed in tandem,” he added.

Green also shared his experience of negotiating with North Korea’s First Vice Foreign Minister Kang Sok-ju during a visit to the North in 2002. “I represented the White House in negotiations [between North Korea and the US] with Kang Sok-ju in Pyongyang in Oct. 2002, and he clearly stated that the US must remove the nuclear umbrella from Japan and South Korea and end its sanctions [against the North],” he said. “I was quite surprised when [Kang] said that [the US] must pressure South Korea to provide the North with economic support, end its criticism of [North Korea’s] human rights record, and recognize the North through a visit by President Bush.”

“After that, North Korea threatened to transfer its nuclear technology,” Green also recalled. He visited North Korea in Oct. 2002 in the company of then Assistant US Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James Kelly.

As an expert who participated in the Six-Party Talks during the Bush administration, Green met with South Korean reporters at the CSIS headquarters in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 16 and expressed his views about the Trump administration’s current policy toward North Korea and about North Korea-US relations. The interview proceeded as follows.

Question: Do you think it’s effective for the Trump administration to pressure China with military options?

Green: I think that Trump hasn’t been able to effectively persuade China. He’s threatening to take extreme action, and he thinks that will work. What I think has actually been effective was the financial sanctions that were announced on Sept. 20. I think these scared China’s leaders by paving the way to impose sanctions on Chinese banks and individuals.

Question: To what extent do you think China will cooperate [with sanctions against North Korea]?

Green: I don’t think that China will use its influence to the extent that [North Korea] collapses. But China can exercise considerable control over the North’s behavior. It can play an effective [role] in controlling the [North’s] acquisition of dual-use items and nuclear weapons. China’s calculations will change.

Question: North Korea’s nuclear weapons and missiles are nearing completion. Once complete, what could the US government do?

Green: That’s a possible scenario. I don’t think that [the completion of North Korea’s nuclear weapons or missiles] can be stopped by military operations or diplomatic means.

Question: It will take time for financial sanctions on North Korea to have an effect, and the likelihood will increase of the North gaining the ability to strike the US mainland. The policy of “maximum pressure and engagement” that the US is currently applying toward North Korea is a principle, not an action plan, right?

Green: If you’re asking whether there’s an action plan to stop North Korea from developing ICBMs, I don’t think there is one. People say that we will have to engage in arms control negotiations [after North Korea completes its development], but this will be challenging for two reasons. If North Korean weapons are given legitimacy, it will lower the barrier to nuclear proliferation for countries like Iran and Syria that want nuclear weapons. From past experience, there are fears and anxiety that North Korea will probably not be satisfied.

We have to show [North Korea] that the use of provocations and military force carry a high risk even if it has nuclear weapons. We also have to show that the [North Korean] regime will be wiped off the map if it uses nuclear weapons. We have to show all this before diplomatic solutions come into play. The main effort here will have to be through deploying military assets and other such measures. This isn’t to rule out diplomatic measures but to say that they’ll only be possible when we’ve restored our deterrence and credibility. That’s the only way we can reach an agreement [with North Korea] that will be effective.

By Kim Ji-eun, staff reporter / Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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