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Chinese Communist Party International Liaison Department chief Song Tao

Chinese Communist Party International Liaison Department chief Song Tao is arriving in North Korea on Nov. 17 for a visit as a special envoy for President Xi Jinping. China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported on Nov. 15 that Song, a ministerial-level official, is scheduled to arrive in North Korea on Nov. 17 to explain about last month’s CCP National Congress as a special envoy for President and CCP General Secretary Xi.

North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency reported on Song’s visit around the same time, although it did not mention the dates. It is the first visit to North Korea by a high ranking Chinese official at the ministerial level or higher since Politburo Standing Committee member Liu Yunshan attended an event to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the Korean Workers’ Party in Oct. 2015.

Many are now watching to see whether Song’s visit will be a turning point for relations between Pyongyang and Beijing, which are currently so deeply strained that exchanges of high ranking officials have all but ceased. A visit by Chinese special envoy was more or less expected in light of the tradition among socialist countries to send delegations after their party congress to explain the outcomes.

Song’s visit – which comes in the wake of a US-China summit during US President Donald Trump’s recent Asia tour, as well as a South Korea-China summit where the solution of the North Korean nuclear issue was a major focus of discussions – could prove a watershed for events on the Korean Peninsula, depending on what cards Beijing plays in its dialogue and how Pyongyang responds. The fact that North Korea has refrained from nuclear or missile tests and other tension-raising actions for over two months is also raising expectations for a change in the dialogue situation.

In a regular briefing on Nov. 15, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang said China and North Korea planned to “exchange views on areas of shared interest in addition to the reports on the 19th National Congress, including relations between our parties and countries” during Song’s visit.

With socialist countries following a tradition of valuing party-to-party diplomacy over typical state relations, North Korea also sent KWP Central Committee Vice Chairman Ri Su-yong to China in May 2016 following its 7th KWP Congress. Song recently visited Vietnam and Laos to share the outcome from the CCP National Congress. At the same time, Song’s position in the Chinese hierarchy as a Central Committee member (204th) places him a level lower as a special envoy than Liu or Li Jianguo, both Politburo members inside the hierarchy’s top 25 at the time of their visit: Liu as Central Propaganda Department head when he visited after the 17th CCP National Congress in 2007, and Li as National People’s Congress vice chairman when he visited after the 18th in 2012.

Experts were mixed in their predictions for Song’s visit. Dongguk University professor Kim Yong-hyun predicted Song would “come out strong in terms of explaining the US’s position to the North after the recent US-China summit and giving specifics on its agreement with China while urging the North to change course toward dialogue.”

“If the outcome is positive, there could be discussions toward a China visit by Kim Jong-un,” Kim said. The North Korean leader has yet to visit a foreign country since taking power in 2011.

University of North Korean Studies professor Yang Moo-jin noted that the International Liaison Department chief “functions in a messenger role between parties and supreme leaders.”

“If Song does meet with Kim Jong-un, I think it could be an opportunity to begin discussions toward denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula and establishing a peace regime,” Yang suggested.

While Beijing does appear to be making active moves in planning for a change in the Korean Peninsula situation, the response from Pyongyang will be key. “Given the clear differences in stance between Pyongyang and Beijing on the North Korean nuclear issue, I don’t think we can expect much of an outcome from one meeting,” Peking University professor Jin Jingyi cautiously predicted.

Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences researcher Lu Chao said, “The fact that both sides announced [the visit] alone can be seen as indicating there has been some level of communication.”

While Lu predicted “some improvement in relations,” he also noted that “not everything will be settled in one go.”

By Kim Oi-hyun, Beijing correspondent, Kim Ji-eun and Noh Ji-won, staff reporters

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