hankyoreh

Harry J. Kazianis

Harry J. Kazianis is the Director of Defense Studies at the Center for the National Interest, founded by President Richard M. Nixon in 1994. He also serves as Executive Editor of its publishing arm, The National Interest.

Mr. Kazianis is a recognized expert on national security issues involving North Korea, China, the Asia-Pacific and general U.S. foreign policy and national security challenges. Kazianis is also Fellow for National Security Affairs at the Potomac Foundation and a non-resident Senior Fellow at the University of Nottingham (UK).

He previously served as part of the foreign policy team for the 2016 presidential campaign of Senator Ted Cruz. Kazianis in the past also managed the foreign policy communications efforts of the Heritage Foundation. He also served as Editor-In-Chief of the Tokyo-based The Diplomat magazine and WSD-Handa Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies: PACNET. He took part in an interview with the Hankyoreh on Jan. 1.

Hankyoreh (Hani): Could you tell me your overall sense on Kim Jong-un's New Year’s address?

Kazianis: Kim’s strategy is simple: divide and conquer mixed with a classic dose of carrots and sticks. On the one hand, it seems Kim wants to not only retain his nuclear deterrent but expand it dramatically. While this is controversial, the North Korean leader offered potential talks with Seoul, something that he hopes will drive a wedge between America and South Korea.

The address was also different in that Kim was dressed in a very western-style suit, dropping the old Maoist style dress of years past. The speech also sounded less like a North Korean-style rant and was a little more polished, knowing the world would be watching.

Hani: Could Kim’s address help to deescalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula during the lead-up to the Pyeongchang Olympics?

Kazianis: I don’t think the North Koreans will be able to resist such a big target like the Olympics—especially if their athletes aren’t allowed to compete or that were to fall through for some reason. I believe North Korea will ‘attack’, but not with missiles or bombs. Kim could very well launch a cyber-attack on the games, for example, taking out ATM machines, public utilities or TV networks connectivity to the outside world. With cyberwarriors based in India and other parts of the world they would be very hard to track down, as North Korea could strike from other countries and mask their tracks using proxy servers.

Kim will not, however, launch an attack on the games that is kinetic. He knows all too well the world be united against him, and he would not want to risk that.

Hani: Why would Kim send a conciliatory gesture toward South Korea at this time?

Kazianis: Kim realized he had to do something, knowing that tensions are at or near an all-time high on the peninsula. As Kim has made it clear he does not want talks with America—he must wait until his nuclear deterrent is fully-ready to hit the U.S. homeland—Kim offering talks to South Korea might put him the driver seat, as if he is appearing to be more reasonable. However, with North Korea likely to test more missiles and nuclear weapons at any moment, Kim’s ploy will likely fall apart as soon as the first missile leaves the launchpad.

Hani: Do you see any signs in Kim’s address of willingness to begin a dialogue with United States?

Kazianis: North Korea clearly does not want to talk to the Trump administration at the moment. They want a fully-capable nuclear program that has a demonstrated and proven capability to reign atomic terror down on Washington. Until that is demonstrated, there will be no talks. And besides, the Trump Administration does not seem to want to talk anyway.

Hani: How should the Moon and Trump administrations respond to North Korea’s message?

Kazianis: I think the South Korean government should explore any talks or talks about talks—it can’t hurt and would give us a sense of what sort of bargain Kim might be thinking. At the same time, South Korea should be clear that they will not negotiate with a gun to their head and that there is a strong possibility talks would collapse if North Korea continues to test missiles and nukes during any talks.

The Trump administration should support efforts at dialogue. However, Washington will not ease any sanctions or give any sweeteners. The peaceful pressure campaign should continue and sanctions expanded every time North Korea commits another hostile act like a nuclear or missile test.

By Yi Yong-in, Washington correspondent

Please direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]